The support war launched by Hezbollah since the second day of the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip in support of the Hamas movement has turned, in the recent period, into a real war with a special, independent, destructive, violent and fierce dynamic, accompanied by a campaign of almost daily Israeli threats that it could develop into a comprehensive war.
The starting point for Hezbollah’s operations in the south against the Israeli army was the premise of the unity of the arenas called for by the resistance, and its goal was to “occupy” the enemy on the northern front and force it to distribute its forces on more than one front, with the aim of reducing Israeli military pressure on the Hamas movement, with the party’s keenness To adhere to the rules of engagement, and to prevent the expansion of confrontations beyond a narrow geographical area adjacent to the borders. But the current situation today is that the fighting that has been going on in the south for more than two and a half months, as well as the Houthi attacks from Yemen in the Red Sea, or the launching of missiles and drones at Israel, or the attacks by pro-Iranian militias on the American forces stationed in Iraq and Syria, all of this has not changed anything in the situation. The course of the genocidal war waged by Israel on the Gaza Strip, and these attacks did not force Israel to consider a ceasefire, or look to end the fighting any time soon.
Israel is taking advantage of the confrontations in southern Lebanon to destroy as many of the party’s positions as possible near the Blue Line
It must be recognized today that the support war that Hezbollah is waging on the border has not alleviated the military burden that Hamas alone bears. On the contrary, it has created a dangerous security reality that portends the worst, as Israel takes advantage of the confrontations in southern Lebanon, to destroy the largest possible number of party positions near the Blue Line, and to kill the largest possible number of its fighters, who numbered 150 martyrs, not to mention the Lebanese civilian victims (finally). A groom and his bride in Bint Jbeil were preparing to travel to Australia), and the displacement of thousands of Lebanese residents of villages adjacent to the border, in addition to damage to homes and property. This is a heavy price incurred by the party’s fighters in this war, and paid by the Lebanese, even if it has not reduced the ferocity of the war taking place in Gaza even a little, and despite Iran’s attempts to exploit what is happening in southern Lebanon in the context of its conflict with Israel, the blood that has been shed is Lebanese and the sacrifices The people of the south are great, especially in this difficult time that Lebanon is experiencing, with economic and financial collapse and the complete absence of the state.
These confrontations have reached a turning point in light of Israeli officials declaring, day and night, that they no longer accept the continuation of the situation that prevailed before October 7 in the north, that is, the armed presence of Hezbollah along the border and a few kilometers from its northern settlements. It presents two options without a third: the voluntary withdrawal of Hezbollah beyond the Litani River and the implementation of Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the July 2006 war, or forcing the party to withdraw using military force.
Hezbollah is currently the only active military force on the ground, not only in southern Lebanon, but in all of Lebanon
Israel’s demand for Hezbollah’s withdrawal and disarming from the area adjacent to the border and imposing the party’s withdrawal by force seems an impossible goal to achieve, just like the one it set for the war on Gaza, i.e. ending Hamas. When Israel demands this, it ignores the facts or hides behind this demand something else that it is preparing in southern Lebanon to change the entire situation in the area adjacent to its northern settlements. The question is: If the Israeli army currently present in northern and central Gaza has not and will not succeed in achieving the goal of disarming Hamas, despite its claim of dismantling its military structures, then how can it hope, in this situation, to disarm Hezbollah and remove it from a region and environment in which it is rooted? Is it part of the social fabric there? What military force can monitor the implementation of the provisions of Resolution 1701 and ensure that Hezbollah is disarmed? Is it the Lebanese army, which is completely incapable of such a thorny mission that puts it face to face against Hezbollah, which has superior military capabilities, or is it the United Nations forces (UNIFIL), whose work over the past years has proven their complete inability, even to enter areas that fall within the scope of their jurisdiction? Hence, the Israeli talk about imposing the withdrawal of the party’s fighters beyond the Litani River or its disarmament in this region appears to be absolute delirium, divorced from actual reality.
Hezbollah is currently the only active military force on the ground, not only in southern Lebanon, but in all of Lebanon, and there is no party or entity that can impose its will on it. It built its military positions near the border for years under the watchful eye of the Israeli army, which did not move a finger, believing that the party was deterred and would not take the initiative to attack Israel.
The fear is that the continuation of the fighting in Gaza will constitute a pretext for a long-term Israeli war of attrition against Hezbollah and against the residents of southern Lebanon, which remains on the brink of war without sliding into a comprehensive war, but which is no less ferocious and destructive.
2023-12-30 00:04:34
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