- Per Olav Ødegård
Commentator in VG. Former foreign journalist and correspondent for VG in the USA. Writes mostly about international affairs.
ANNOUNCES REVENGE: Donald Trump is running for revenge. Here from a speech in New York on 9 December. Photo: ANGELA WEISS / AFP / NTB
At the start of a new year, the political picture in the United States is dark and disturbing.
Published:
Less than 20 minutes ago
This is a comment. The comment expresses the writer’s position
The presidential election in November is the most important event on the international calendar for 2024.
This time it is not just a choice between two candidates. Now it is about the future of liberal democracy and about the role of the United States as a leader of free nations.
The Republicans, also called “The Grand Old Party”, seem determined to give Donald Trump a second chance as president, almost four years after he tried by all means to overturn a legal election result.
THE STORMING OF THE CAPITOL: Trump supporters stormed Congress on January 6, saying the election of Joe Biden for president should be approved. Photo: SHANNON STAPLETON / Reuters / NTB
The coup attempt failed, but Trump’s power over the Republican Party remains. What was a responsible conservative party has become divided into factions fighting bitter battles.
The strongest faction is the right-wing populist movement that worships Trump. In this sect, people firmly believe the big lie that Trump actually won the election in 2020. And that there is an internal enemy that is much worse and more dangerous than any foreign power.
The Republican Party was founded by opponents of slavery and Abraham Lincoln became their first president. Today, Donald Trump talks about how “illegal immigrants are poisoning the nation’s blood”.
ON THE BORDER: Migrants on the border between Mexico and the United States on December 28. Donald Trump tightens his use of the word migrants who cross the border. Photo: JOSE LUIS GONZALEZ / Reuters / NTB
– I have never read “Mein Kampf”, Trump said at an election rally in Iowa before Christmas, as a response to critics who believe that his speech about the nation’s blood is suspiciously similar to the one used by Adolf Hitler.
Trump doesn’t care about frightening historical parallels. Obviously, neither do many of his followers. The blood rhetoric works. The audience applauds him.
In the same vein, Trump has begun to refer to political opponents as vermin. These are the words that authoritarian leaders typically use. Trump’s language has become increasingly authoritarian.
Republican Richard Nixon was re-elected president by appealing to “a silent majority”. Trump is instead inciting a loud and angry minority, which he hopes will have grown into a majority by the time of the November election.
– I am your warrior. I am your justice. And to all who have been wronged and betrayed, I am your retribution, he said in a speech in Maryland earlier this year.
IN COURT: Former President Donald Trump in the New York Supreme Court on October 24. He must spend a large part of 2024 in the courts. Photo: MAANSI SRIVASTAVA / AFP / NTB
But no one has suffered a greater injustice than himself, according to Trump. Not only does he claim to have been robbed of an election victory. He also claims to be the victim of the worst witch hunt of all time.
Trump’s election campaign is therefore primarily about getting revenge on everyone who has stood against him. It is a far cry from Republican Ronald Reagan’s positive, optimistic and forward-looking message in the 1984 election campaign about “Tomorrow in America”.
FAR FROM EACH OTHER: President Donald Trump and presidential candidate Joe Biden in a debate on September 29, 2020. A repeat is planned in autumn 2024. Photo: Morry Gash / AP / NTB
Trump has called the November election the final battle. At the opposite end of the ring stands an aging and unpopular president, Joe Biden (81). More and more Democratic voters doubt whether he has enough power to defeat Trump, once again.
The US has been through a period of high inflation and high interest rates. The fact that the American economy has fared much better through difficult economic times than other Western countries has not convinced voters that Biden should be given renewed confidence.
A big problem is also that many voters think that Biden, America’s oldest president, has become too old for the job. Fewer pages the same about the four-year-younger Trump.
Trump’s problem is that he will have to spend a large part of the new year in the courts. He is charged with a total of 91 matters in four criminal cases in various courts. Being elected president is the best protection against the risk of being sentenced to prison terms. Meanwhile, Trump is using the criminal prosecution as evidence that he is being subjected to a witch hunt.
OLDEST PRESIDENT: Many voters say they think Joe Biden is too old to be president. Fewer say the same about Donald Trump, who is four years younger. Photo: JIM WATSON / AFP / NTB
Among a majority of Americans, there is little enthusiasm for a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, a number of opinion polls show.
Behind the two older men stand two younger women ready to take over. What if the US presidential election was between Nikki Haley (51) and Kamala Harris (59), instead of Trump and Biden?
Harris v. Haley is a hypothetical scenario, though not entirely unthinkable.
If Biden, contrary to conjecture, chooses to withdraw, Vice President Kamala Harris is the closest to taking over as the Democrats’ candidate.
If Trump is found guilty next year in one or more of the criminal cases awaiting him, it may be necessary for the Republicans to think again. Nikki Haley is experiencing an upswing in the election campaign and is competing for second place after Trump.
OUT OF THE SHADOW: Vice President Kamala Harris is given an important task in mobilizing women and young voters. Photo: JIM WATSON / AFP / NTB
Polls have been recorded suggesting that it would be very even if it were between Haley and Harris. It would be a choice between a traditionally conservative Republican candidate who is a hawk on foreign policy and a liberal Democrat who will continue much of the current administration’s policies.
Haley has sought to appeal more broadly than Trump, as an alternative to attract independent voters and conservative Democrats. But she shied away at a rally this week when asked about the background to the American Civil War without mentioning slavery in the South. The next day she apologized.
Harris has been relegated to a fairly anonymous supporting role in the White House. She is not more popular than Biden in the broad strata of the people, but with a couple of significant exceptions. Harris has greater support than Biden among young people, women and minorities. These are the voter groups the Democrats must mobilize to win the presidential election. This gives Harris an important role in the election campaign.
FIGHTING FOR THE VOTES: Nikki Haley at a campaign rally in New Hampshire on December 28. She is becoming the leading challenger to Donald Trump in the Republican Party. Photo: JOSEPH PREZIOSO / AFP / NTB
The fact that the outlook is disturbing is largely due to what happened recently. American democracy was put to the test when Trump refused to accept electoral defeat and instead incited his supporters to fight.
The legitimacy of elections and the peaceful transfer of power are cornerstones of democracies. Trump is systematically undermining trust in the electoral system. He will never admit defeat.
It is therefore not just election night that will be exciting in 2024. There is every reason to fear what may happen in the following days.
Published:
Published: 29.12.23 at 23:17
2023-12-29 22:17:10
#Comment #Trump #dark #dangerous
