For decades, the military power of the USA was indisputable, Business Insider commented in an analysis.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the US was the world’s only military superpower, with forces deployed around the world to protect allies and deter aggression. But as the end of 2023 approaches, conflicts are flaring up around the world, and Russia and China are becoming increasingly aggressive in their common quest to displace the United States as the world’s greatest power, the publication notes.
Their authoritarian leaders, China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, are seeking to take advantage of global instability to hurt the United States and its allies, observers say, and are edging closer to the eventual creation of a military alliance that would represent the most the great threat to the US for decades.
“It’s clear that the two countries see themselves as military partners, and that partnership is getting deeper and more experienced, even if it’s not a formal alliance in the Western sense of the word,” Jonathan Ward, chief executive director of “Atlas Group”.
Xi and Putin are moving closer to a formidable military alliance
The rivalry between the US and the partnership between Russia and China can be seen in conflicts around the world.
China provided Russia with vital economic and diplomatic support in its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, while the US gave billions in aid to Kiev.
In the Middle East, Russia and China have allied with Iran and criticized Israel’s attacks on the Gaza Strip aimed at destroying the Tehran-backed Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas. Meanwhile, the US provided military aid and diplomatic support to Israel.
China, experts say, is likely watching the outcome of the war in Ukraine carefully to get signals about how the world will react if it acts on its plans to assert control over Taiwan.
And as they grow closer, China and Russia are increasingly coordinating their military resources, notes Business Insider.
“The Russian-Chinese ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partnership for Coordination Towards a New Era’ has always been about military power,” Ward said.
Over the past two years, Russia and China have launched joint naval exercises in the Sea of Japan, Russia has given China submarine technology that could give it an edge in a war with US allies in the Pacific, and their leaders have pledged to cooperate in developing high-tech weapons, as Putin announced in November.
Russia has also sold China Su-25 jets, Mi-17 helicopters and S-400 air defense systems.
Although their leaders have not signed a formal military alliance, such steps should be of great concern to the US and its allies, noted Chels Michta in a recent study by the Center for European Policy Analysis.
“A full-scale alliance between China and Russia would pose a threat to the United States the likes of which it has not faced since the end of the Cold War,” Mihta wrote.
The US military has been called upon to address the new threat
During the Cold War, the Pentagon planned to be able to fight one major and two smaller wars at the same time. But in the face of changing threats, he changed his strategy so that he could fight one major war and deter other attacks.
In October, the US Congressional Strategic Posture Committee said the country now faces threats “radically different (than) anything they’ve experienced in the past, even in the darkest days of the Cold War,” due to the rise of China and Russia.
The commission urged the Pentagon to review its plans to be ready for the possibility of war with China and Russia simultaneously.
“The Russia-China axis poses a huge threat to the US, given that we will have to deal with security both in Europe and Asia and in the Middle East at the risk of being stretched as Beijing and Moscow coordinate to pursue their respective regional ambitions,” Ward pointed out.
However, some experts remain skeptical about the stability of the Russian-Chinese alliance, citing long-standing tensions between the two powers and China’s desire to maintain close ties to lucrative Western markets.
But the possibility of a military pact between their authoritarian leaders is one that, according to observers, the US should prepare for, Business Insider claims.
US global alliances are critical to its ability to neutralize the threat posed by rival superpowers. Especially in Europe, they urgently need to increase their military capacity, Ward believes.
“The US can still deal with both threats, but this will require a significant increase in responsibility sharing, especially among its European allies, who have already seen the real consequences of geopolitical ‘coordination’ between Russia and China following the invasion of Ukraine.” added Ward.
Closer relations between China and Russia have been building for decades, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has further strengthened their embrace, Foreign Policy magazine notes in an analysis.
The two countries have made a clear strategic choice to prioritize relations with each other in the face of what they perceive as a common threat from the West, led by the US. The deepening of bilateral ties is accompanied by a joint drive towards global realignment, as both countries use non-Western multilateral institutions such as the BRICS forum and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to expand their influence in the developing world, the magazine commented.
Although neither Beijing nor Moscow currently have plans to establish a formal military alliance, major upheavals, such as a possible Sino-US conflict over Taiwan, could trigger it.
What next? It is most likely that the Sino-Russian rapprochement will continue, predicts “Foreign Policies” magazine.
The journal notes that this is not immutable, however, as progress can speed up, slow down or reverse its direction. In the absence of external shocks, Beijing and Moscow may not need to significantly improve their relations compared to their current course of development.
Xi and Putin share similar views on the hostile West and recognize the strategic advantages of closer rapprochement. But they remain wary of each other, neither willing to be in charge or subordinate to the other.
Major changes or upheavals, however, could bring them closer at a faster pace, notes “Foreign Policies” magazine. If Russia suffers a devastating military setback in Ukraine that risks toppling Putin’s regime, China may reconsider significant military aid. If China in turn finds itself in a major crisis over Taiwan or in conflict with the US, Beijing can lean more on Moscow.
During a potential conflict over Taiwan, Russia could also engage in advantageous aggression elsewhere that would bind China and Russia in the eyes of the international community, even if Moscow’s actions are not coordinated with Beijing, the analysis states magazine, adding that a change in direction toward ever-closer Sino-Russian ties is also possible, though far less likely.
Some experts on Chinese politics worry that Russia will always prioritize its own interests over any consideration of bilateral ties. If, for example, former US President Donald Trump wins another term, he may reduce US support for Ukraine and offer Putin improved relations.
This, in turn, could reduce the Kremlin’s willingness to support China against the US. It is not clear whether these concerns are shared by the top Chinese or Russian leaders, but mutual distrust and skepticism of the other remain on both sides, Foreign Policy magazine concludes.
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2023-12-28 18:29:00
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