In Spain there are 3.3 million variable mortgages in the residential sector, which have been facing consecutive increases in their installments for a year due to increases in interest rates, which caused the Euribor to also rise, according to data from the Spanish Mortgage Association. The Euribor is the index to which the majority of loans for the purchase of housing at a variable rate in Spain are referenced, and this will close December at around 3.68%, being the largest monthly decrease in 14 years, as explained by the Association of Financial Users (Asufin).
However, although this figure represents the third month-on-month decrease of the year, it is still 22.2% higher than that of December of last year. Therefore, those who review their variable mortgage in January will pay 50.98 euros more per month – 611.76 euros more per year – for an average mortgage in Spain, which represents an increase in their payment of 6.59%, according to calculations from the savings website Kelisto.es.
“The Euribor is rising again compared to December of last year, which continues without giving respite to variable mortgages with annual review that are reviewed in January,” asserts the spokesperson for Kelisto.es, Estefanía González. She also adds that “the good news will come, of course, for those who have a semi-annual review, who will see reductions in their installments, since six months ago the Euribor was still above 4%”,
The savings may materialize in February or March, and will be more intense as the year progresses, especially in the months of July and September, when the Euribor reached 4.19%. In this sense, the monthly mortgage payment for every 100,000 euros with a semiannual review would be reduced by 19 euros, according to Asufin.
Those who have a variable mortgage will observe increasingly less pronounced increases, or even decreases from the month of February or March. Furthermore, “the Euribor could consolidate at around 3% and 3.5% throughout the second quarter of the year, to fall below that range in the second half of the year,” explains the spokesperson.
Euribor between 3% and 4.2%
If current economic conditions are maintained, González points out that it is foreseeable that rate cuts will arrive in the first half of the year, although this decrease may not be visible until the beginning of summer or until the end of the first quarter of 2024.
Therefore, the Euribor forecast for 2024 places the indicator at the end of next year in a range that goes from 3% to 4.2%. For their part, Funcas and Bankinter are the ones that foresee the highest figures for the end of 2024, with 4.2% and 3.25%, respectively; while Caixabank and Asufin are more optimistic, placing this indicator at 3.06% and 3%, respectively.
2023-12-28 17:12:10
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