The results of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held in December 2023 were unexpectedly dovish. The policy interest rate forecast for the end of 2024 is 4.6%, and a total of three rate cuts (0.75%) are expected in the same year.
The 10-year OIS interest rate (the interest rate when exchanging the overnight interest rate and the 10-year long-term interest rate) takes into account the market’s assumption of 2024 = 5 or more rate cuts (1.25%). On the other hand, according to “GDP Now (forecast value of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP)), the annual growth rate from the previous quarter for the October-December period of 2021 was 2.6%, and the U.S. business confidence remains strong. As interest rates continue to decline, the yen will continue to appreciate if Japan’s interest rates increase, such as by lifting negative interest rates, the yen will continue to appreciate.If the Bank of Japan’s stance is unclear, the level of the yen’s appreciation will not be known, and this will have a negative impact on corporate performance. It is difficult to gauge the impact of this.The U.S. stock market has been rising sharply due to the “Goldilocks market,” where interest rates are falling and optimism about business conditions is simultaneously progressing. FOM…
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2023-12-28 15:02:43
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