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Bank of England in London (Symbolbild). © Tayfun Salci/Imago
Surprising new forecasts: Within the next 15 years, the UK economy will be the best performing in Europe. Germany is losing momentum.
The UK will be Europe’s best-performing major economy over the next 15 years, narrowing the gap with Germany and widening its lead over France, according to a new long-term forecast. The Center for Economics and Business Research expects UK GDP growth to settle between 1.6 percent and 1.8 percent by 2038, helping the country retain its position as the world’s sixth largest economy .
Forecasts published on Tuesday predict the UK will emerge from years of economic doldrums marked by Brexit and a series of shocks including the pandemic and rising inflation.
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British economy is growing faster than the eurozone
The UK economy has been held back by weak productivity growth since the financial crisis, and labor supply problems have also emerged in recent years. This has led the Bank of England to become more pessimistic about the UK’s growth prospects for the coming years.
According to CEBR’s long-term world economic rankings, the UK is expected to grow faster than the four major eurozone economies – France, Germany, Italy and Spain – but not as fast as the US.
“The fundamentals of the UK economy are still very strong,” said Pushpin Singh, senior economist at CEBR. “London’s status as a hub for financial and advisory services remains strong and, together with the overall strength of the services sector across the UK, will drive UK growth.”
He said the economic impact of Britain leaving the European Union was “either exaggerated or not yet sufficiently researched”.
China is replacing the USA as the world’s largest economy
The economic consultancy expects China to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy in 2037, with global GDP doubling as emerging markets catch up with developed countries.
By 2038, Italy will fall out of the top 10 largest economies in the world and be replaced by South Korea. The US and Germany will slide down the rankings, while India and Brazil – two developing countries with large populations – will move up within the top 10.
France will underperform the UK largely because of its large public sector and high taxes, while slowing production in Germany will help the UK catch up, Singh said.
©2023 Bloomberg L.P.
We are currently testing machine translations. This article was automatically translated from English into German.
This article was first published in English on December 26, 2023 at the “Washingtonpost.com“ was published – as part of a cooperation, it is now also available in translation to readers of the IPPEN.MEDIA portals.
2023-12-28 07:28:25
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