XSpring AM assesses that Thai stocks in 2024 can grow sideways up in the range of 1,400-1,520 points, sees downside risks beginning to be limited – government economic stimulus policies help support.
Mr. Yosakorn Follett, Chief Executive Officer Xspring Asset Management Company Limited or XSpring AM Revealed that in 2023, the overall Thai stock market was considered to have dropped the most in the region. Due to pressure from the economic situation that has begun to slow down according to the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council has lowered its GDP forecast for 2023 to 2.5% from the original expected growth of 2.5-3%, along with the trend of trading programs (Robot Trade) and short selling without borrowing securities (Naked Short). There is also pressure from concerns that the bonds of many private companies are at risk of not being able to renew contracts or roll-over investments.
Thai stocks 2024
These factors therefore heavily depress the investment atmosphere in the Thai capital market. However, from this relatively large decrease. It makes us think that the Thai stock market has limited opportunity to decline. Therefore, it is seen that the investment atmosphere in 2024 will gradually improve. The industries that will still grow are the service sector businesses. The tourism sector, the Healthcare & Wellness business group, and the consumer products group with good export sales have outstanding growth opportunities.
However, it is seen that the Thai stock market in 2024 will begin to relax from the above pressures. In terms of economic growth, it is seen that Will receive support from government policies such as digital policies. Wallet that will inject cash flow into the economy totaling over 500 billion baht, which such measures It is likely to be one of the main factors driving GDP growth next year. And if the overall economy improves, the atmosphere of the bond market, which is another important factor putting pressure on the Thai stock market, will also ease.
Mr. Yosakorn Follett
As for the issue of Naked Short that is currently trending, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently reassured investors through a statement and prepared to discuss further strict control measures. This is expected to help ease the investment atmosphere. As for the Robot Trade case, which has caused short-term investors to become concerned because the trading value of the trading program has increased significantly. It is seen that this issue will only occur in the short term. Because in 2023 the Thai stock market is sluggish. As a result, retail investors will trade less, resulting in the proportion of Robot Trade or real trading programs being significantly higher.
“In 2024, the Thai stock market can still be invested in. Because interest rates in Thailand are not yet very high. As a result, the Earning Gap Yield when compared to investing in stocks and government bonds is still high compared to many countries. Downside Risk or downside risk is beginning to be limited, especially when the SET Index depends on at the level of 1,400 points, while the SETHD Index (Set High Dividend 30 Index) has a relatively high average dividend rate of approximately 6-7% per year, which is quite higher than the return in the form of interest on deposits in our country,” Mr. Yosakorn say
Thai stocks 2024
From all factors, it is considered that next year Global Cyclical Equity Fund will answer investors’ needs quite well. Because it is a fund that focuses on investing in stocks whose returns depend on the global economic situation. The world economy is in the direction of slowing down but is still strong. Along with the central banks of major countries, both the United States and Europe, adjusting their monetary policy stances to be more accommodative. The group of cyclical stocks has an attractive price/value level. (Expected to make good returns during Q1 2024)
Off-market debt funds have relatively high interest income (Gross Yield 10%), with many funds choosing to diversify risk among issuers. with collateral in the master fund It is seen that it will be an asset that gives good returns compared to price fluctuations. And if the global economy faces risks, there will be a lower chance of foreign bond funds being negative than other bond funds, especially when compared to the High Yield Bond group.
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2023-12-28 01:13:38
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