With the war in Ukraine, Westerners find themselves facing a dilemma similar to that of the Americans during the Second World War. Either, they choose to gradually abandon Ukraine. Either they understand that support for Ukraine goes further than the defense of its territorial integrity and that it is our values and our credibility as a power that are at stake. In the event of defeat, we could witness a chain of events leading to the end of Western domination.
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Westerners ready to let go of Ukraine?
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Without Western aid, Ukraine is unable to continue the fight and must capitulate to Russia. This dependence has long been waved like a scarecrow by Western leaders in order to explain the financial and material support offered to kyiv since the start of the war. Moreover, the failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive ushers in difficult times for Ukraine. Without additional support from the West, a new Ukrainian offensive would have no chance of success. Worse, the end of Western deliveries would certainly sign the end of kyiv’s ambitions, which would no longer be able to continue the fight.
The US Congress recently blocked an aid package
intended for Ukraine.
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We have recently seen a weakening of Western aid to Ukraine, which is causing concern at higher levels in kyiv where there are even fears of a complete cessation of this aid. This phenomenon is accentuated by a public opinion tired and exhausted by the economic situation. European and American citizens are now more concerned about their ends of the month than the end of Ukraine. This context gives Zelensky a cold sweat. Indeed, the American Congress recently blocked an aid package intended for Ukraine even though the United States was kyiv’s biggest benefactor during this war. Things are moving in the same direction in Europe, while additional aid is threatened by certain EU member states such as Hungary and Slovakia.
Russia is in a position of strength and will take advantage of its advantage
These Western hesitations delight Russia, which has truly gained the upper hand in this war. While Russian strategy was poor in the first months of the invasion, with the army failing to bring down kyiv, the second phase of the conflict is clearly to Putin’s advantage. The Russian army holds its positions and is not worried by the Ukrainian counter-offensive because solid defenses have been erected. Furthermore, we should not rule out a potential Russian offensive in the coming months, which would allow them to solidify their control of the annexed oblasts.
Despite Putin’s repeated calls for peace, he is not open to dialogue as his objectives have not been achieved. There are two of these: access to warm seas and the neutralization of Ukraine. Russia has secured access to warm seas, a historic objective of Russian sovereigns, with the annexation of Crimea and Ukrainian coastal regions. Furthermore, Putin’s initial objective remains present with the desire to extend his sphere of influence and prevent Ukraine from rallying to the West. Thus, he has probably not abandoned the idea of making Ukraine a satellite country won over to his cause, on the Belarusian model. For this, he hopes that time is on his side with a gradual decline in support from the West.
Western support for Ukraine is needed to avoid the end of history
A defeat of Ukraine could constitute the symbol of an “end of History” according to the philosophical concept of Hegel, taken up by Francis Fukuyama. The first asserted that Napoleon’s victory at Jena had constituted the end of History in terms of the evolution of human society towards the “universal and homogeneous State”. The second affirmed that after the Fall of the Berlin Wall, it was likely that we would end up with a victory for liberal democracy and the market economy. Thus, the defeat of Ukraine could constitute the symbol of a Western defeat against an authoritarian regime and the beginning of the end of Western domination. This would close an open parenthesis with the fall of the Chinese Empire during the Opium Wars.
Russia’s victory in Ukraine would mean Western sanctions have less
effect than in the past.
Now, if we follow the reasoning of Francis Fukuyama, can we not say that a defeat of Ukraine could lead to the end of the parenthesis of Western domination? If we follow this reflection through, several hypotheses could go in this direction: first, the victory of an authoritarian state over another supported by the West, despite sanctions, would be possible (1); can other authoritarian states like China feel themselves growing wings and taking action on their side (2); finally, could the world order established after the Second World War under the influence of the United States survive such setbacks and prosper (3) challenging Western domination in the long term.
Russia’s victory in Ukraine would be a symbol, it would mean that Western sanctions have less effect than in the past and that their military aid is no longer as crucial. Thus, there should be no doubt that the communications services of Russia and its allies will not hesitate to demonstrate the superiority of their model compared to that of liberal democracy. If, in this case, it has no effect on Western populations by imposing a change in our liberal democracies, it could convince other countries of the Global South who were hesitant, to take the plunge and shun the Westerners and join the autocratic camps.
It could also provide additional motivation for other autocratic countries to act and challenge the West, notably China on the Taiwan issue. It is likely that Xi Jinping will carefully observe the situation in Ukraine to perfect his possible invasion of Taiwan. On the one hand, it must look at the effectiveness and operational mode of Western support to support a state less powerful than its neighbor. On the other hand, he also observes that public opinion is growing tired and that the long term works in favor of authoritarian regimes like his, unlike what was observed during the Second World War or the Cold War. In the event of a considerable reduction in Western aid to Ukraine, what credibility will the West and particularly the United States have in the defense of Ukraine?
The failure of Ukraine would constitute the first step in the overthrow of the World Order by the countries of the Global South to the detriment of the West. If these countries do not agree on their objectives, they are united in their challenge to Western domination and in particular that of the United States. Thus, the defeat of Ukraine could constitute a symbolic step leading to the questioning of Western domination, particularly through international institutions. In this hypothesis, we cannot exclude a challenge to international order and security as we have known it since the Fall of the Berlin Wall leading to an end of History: that of Western domination over the world.
*Le Millénaire is a Gaullist and independent think tank specializing in public policy.
2023-12-27 19:05:09
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