European line container shipping futures have collectively strengthened, and Hong Kong shipping stocks are expected to continue to benefit.
Hu Jiarong from Finance Association
2023-12-26 16:49:34
Financial News Agency, December 26 (Editor Hu Jiarong) European line container futures strengthened significantly today. Judging from the current trend of A-shares, including COSCO SHIPPING Energy, COSCO SHIPPING Development, and China Merchants Shipping Co., Ltd., they have all risen to varying degrees. However, Hong Kong stocks did not open today due to holidays, which can provide some direction for Hong Kong shipping stocks that will open tomorrow.
As of press time, the main European line container shipping futures rose 16.99% to 1498.7.
Note: The trend of European line container futures
For European line container futures, this future adopts the design plan of “service index, international platform, RMB pricing, and cash delivery”. It is my country’s first service futures variety and the first index and cash futures listed on the commodity futures exchange. Futures type for delivery.
The strength of European shipping futures is related to the current situation in the Red Sea. According to relevant media, due to the tension in the Red Sea region, the Suez Canal was pressed on the “pause button”, and the Asia-Europe route became urgent.
According to the spot market freight rates updated by freight forwarders from shipowners, prices on many European routes will double early next year. A freight forwarder in Shanghai told the Associated Press that shipping prices have increased by 40 to 50% in the past two weeks, and shipping prices may more than double early next year.
After Maersk announced the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea, the situation in the Red Sea region seems to have improved. According to this morning’s data from COSCO SHIPPING’s “Ship Vision”, 17 container ships turned back (changed course to the Red Sea), and 12 container ships did not turn back (sailed to the Red Sea as originally planned, without considering detouring during the journey). flight). Thirteen of the ships that turned back were operated by Maersk, 2 were operated by Mediterranean Shipping Company, and 2 were operated by France’s CMA CGM.
Why does the Red Sea situation continue to attract market attention?
Huatai Futures pointed out that there are currently two traditional routes from Asia to Nordic ports, namely via the Suez Canal and via the Cape of Good Hope to Nordic ports. Due to economic reasons, the market prefers to reach Europe via the Suez Canal route. If the Red Sea crisis continues to ferment, most container ships may choose to go around the Cape of Good Hope instead of reaching Northern Europe through the Suez Canal, which will support the price of the currently listed Container Europe Line Index futures from two angles.
On the one hand, traveling around the Cape of Good Hope to reach Nordic ports increases the transportation distance by 30% compared to the most economical route, which provides strong support for freight rates from the cost side; on the other hand, traveling around the Cape of Good Hope will increase the one-way operation time of ships at sea by nearly 10 days. In extreme cases, effective transportation capacity may be reduced by 25%-30%.
How much impact will the Red Sea situation have on which shipping stocks in Hong Kong stocks?
According to incomplete statistics, shipping stocks affected by the Red Sea situation include COSCO Shipping Holdings (02866.HK), COSCO Shipping Lines (02200.HK), Orient Overseas (00316.HK), and SITC International (01308.HK). The business scope of these companies is mainly concentrated on Asian and European routes.
Galaxy Futures said that in the short term, the Red Sea crisis will catalyze price increases, and freight rates are expected to still have room to rise in the short term. If the detour factors are eliminated before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand pattern of container transportation is expected to remain weak next year.
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2023-12-26 08:49:34
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