Lee Jae-myeong, leader of the Democratic Party, enters the party representative office of the National Assembly on the 14th to meet with Presidential Office Policy Director Lee Kwan-seop. yunhap news
The Democratic Party is at home and abroad. We are mired in a structural and chronic crisis. If things continue like this, we cannot guarantee victory in next year’s April 10 general election or the next presidential election. The most serious problem is that the majority of Democratic Party members believe that the Democratic Party is not currently in crisis. I think differently. Let’s look at the reality and causes of the Democratic Party’s crisis, focusing on recent developments. There will be many people who disagree. Please take a closer look at the rapidly accelerating political situation ahead of the general election.
1. Competition for innovation is losing ground
Politics is relative. If your opponent does well, you lose, and if your opponent does poorly, you have a way to win. A big change has begun in President Yoon Seok-yeol and the People Power Party. Representative Kim Ki-hyun has stepped down, and an emergency response committee will soon be established. It was President Yoon Seok-yeol who established Representative Kim Ki-hyun, and it was President Yoon Seok-yeol who kicked out Representative Kim Ki-hyun. Something crazy is happening. Still, in any case, the People Power Party under the non-representative system was able to participate in the general election with dynamism. A large-scale ‘nomination massacre’ is expected. Although nomination massacre is by no means desirable, the reality is that voters accept it as innovation and cheer it. Unlike the People Power Party, it is difficult for the Democratic Party to secure dynamism in nominations. In order to prepare for ‘judicial risk’ and prevent the departure of the non-mainstream, the direction of nominations is focused on ‘integration’ rather than ‘innovation’. We are bound to be at a disadvantage in the competition for innovation. If we are not careful, the 15th general election of 1996 could be repeated. From the beginning, there were many predictions that President Kim Young-sam’s Democratic Liberal Party would be defeated in the 15th general election. President Kim Young-sam changed the name of the party to the New Korea Party and nominated many people from the People’s Party, such as Lee Jae-oh and Kim Moon-soo, and professionals, such as Hong Jun-pyo and Maeng Hyeong-gyu. The election result was a victory for the New Korea Party. The New Korea Party had 139 seats and the New Politics National Assembly had 79 seats.
2. Breaking the promise to reform the electoral system
The Democratic Party held a general meeting of lawmakers on the 14th to discuss whether to maintain the semi-linked system or return to the parallel system. No conclusion was reached. Representative Lee Jae-myung did not attend. It is unclear whether Representative Lee Jae-myung is deeply concerned about the election system or whether he is taking his time because he does not want to be criticized even after deciding on a parallel regression. The Democratic Party’s parallel regression is a broken promise. When he was a presidential candidate, Representative Lee Jae-myung pledged, “I will move toward a new politics where a third choice is possible for a better political change,” and added, “The dream of political change and a unified government is much more important than Lee Jae-myung becoming president.” If the Democratic Party reverts to a parallel system, local elections may become difficult due to a large number of candidates from progressive parties running. This is because the votes are distributed. Even if you win the general election, it could easily be an ‘honor that only hurts.’ If the image of ‘the Democratic Party that does not keep its promises’ and ‘unreliable Lee Jae-myung’ is imprinted, the 2026 local elections and the 2027 presidential election will become difficult.
3. First-time lawmaker not running
Rep. Oh Young-hwan (35, Uijeongbu, Gyeonggi Province) is the first firefighter-turned-National Assembly member in Korea. Rep. Lee Tan-hee (45, Yonginjeong, Gyeonggi-do) is a former judge who resisted Supreme Court Yang Seung-tae’s judicial manipulation. Rep. Hong Seong-guk (60, Sejong-gap) is a former president of Daewoo Securities. The three entered politics by recruiting talent from the Democratic Party ahead of the 2020 general election and were elected in local elections. The evaluations of political reporters who have closely observed their legislative activities are also good. These people are the future of the Democratic Party. However, for slightly different reasons, he announced that he would not run in next year’s general election. I don’t think these people’s decision is right. Good politics requires good politicians. However, it is a very unusual phenomenon that first-time constituency lawmakers with bright futures are giving up running for office one after another. Isn’t it because the future of the Democratic Party is dark? This is a matter to think deeply about. In my last article, I said that the possibility of ‘Lee Nak-yeon’s new party’ was 0%. Former Representative Lee Nak-yeon was said to be a politician who is no different from the ‘soul of the Democratic Party.’ I think I saw it wrong. This was the first time I learned that souls can also ‘run away’. Former Representative Lee Nak-yeon’s withdrawal from the party and the creation of a new party are without justification. Criticizing Representative Lee Jae-myung and leaving the party to form a new party are two completely different issues. However, it is difficult to understand why people continue to talk about leaving the party and creating a new party. Policy Committee Chairman Lee Gae-ho and Gwangju City Party Chairman Lee Byeong-hoon, who are very close to him, declared that they would ‘defend the Democratic Party’. Former Representative Lee Nak-yeon’s deceased mother blocked her husband, who was a member of the opposition party, from joining the Democratic Justice Party, saying, “I can’t bear to turn my children into the children of a man with no faith.” Former CEO Nak-yeon Lee himself said in 2003, “It is me. After receiving a call from his mother saying, “Don’t go to the new party!”, he did not join the Uri Party. What choice will former CEO Nak-yeon Lee ultimately make? If the creation of a new party goes ahead, former leader Lee Nak-yeon himself will take the biggest hit, but the Democratic Party cannot avoid damage either. Representative Lee Jae-myung will also be held responsible for failing to prevent the former leader from leaving the party.
Lee Nak-yeon, former leader of the Democratic Party of Korea. yunhap news
5. National convention money envelope incident
The decision on whether to arrest former CEO Song Young-gil will be made on the 18th. The suspicion of money envelopes at the National Convention is suspected of violating the Political Party Act and the Political Fund Act, and the suspicion of donations to the ‘Research Institute for Peace and Eating and Living’ (Muksayeon) is suspected of violating the Political Fund Act and the Act on Aggravated Punishment for Specific Crimes (bribery). . The warrant review is conducted by Chief Judge Yoo Chang-hoon, who dismissed the arrest warrant for CEO Lee Jae-myeong. What happens? If former leader Song Young-gil is arrested, the Democratic Party and leader Lee Jae-myung will also suffer a blow. After losing the presidential election, former representative Song Young-gil ran for mayor of Seoul and lost in the June 1 local elections, and representative Lee Jae-myung ran for Gyeyang-eul, Incheon, which was his constituency, and was elected. Even if the warrant is dismissed, while the National Convention money envelope case trial continues, the morality of the Democratic Party will inevitably be on the chopping block. This is frustrating for the Democratic Party. Fandom is a very important component of politics. However, ‘exclusive fandom’ that indiscriminately attacks other politicians who are rivals actually harms democracy within the party. Among the Rights Party members who support Representative Lee Jae-myung, there are many exclusive fandoms like this. The poison they are spewing is paralyzing the entire Democratic Party. The indiscriminate attacks of exclusive fandom are behind the increasingly worsening relationship between former Representative Lee Nak-yeon and ‘non-Lee Jae-myung’ lawmakers with Representative Lee Jae-myung. ‘Pro-Lee Jae-myung’ politicians in the general election are intentionally stimulating exclusive fandom in preparation for the primary against ‘non-Lee Jae-myung’ lawmakers. It’s a vicious cycle.
7. A bunch of old boys run for office
A large number of so-called ‘old boys’, including Park Jie-won, Chung Dong-young, and Cheon Jeong-bae, are expected to run in next year’s general election. There are a few people in the People Power Party, including Lee In-je and Kim Moo-sung, but the Democratic Party has far more people. Politicians should not be discriminated against because of their age. It is a virtue for a soldier to fight and die on the battlefield until the end. The same goes for politicians. However, if you look at the Democratic Party as a whole, the large number of old boys running for office is bad news. If you are excluded from the primary to prevent your candidacy, you can withdraw from the party and run as an independent candidate. Various efforts are needed, such as preparing and announcing certain standards and having the party leadership persuade the parties individually. Representative Lee Jae-myung and the Democratic Party are not taking any action. When I meet Democratic Party members individually, they often say, “Because the Yoon Seok-yeol administration is so desperate, if they don’t make a big mistake, the Democratic Party will easily win the general election.” This may be true. But elections are an unknown thing. In particular, general elections are much more difficult to predict than presidential elections. The reason why the media always evaluates the results of past general elections as ‘unusual’ is because the media failed to accurately read the votes. This is also because the public opinion fluctuates wildly until the last minute. In general elections, the side that remains humble and does its best until the last minute usually wins. The optimistic side lost. “I hate President Yoon Seok-yeol, but he does not support the Democratic Party.” In a Gallup Korea poll released on the 15th, President Yoon Seok-yeol’s job evaluation was 31% positive and 62% negative. The approval rating for political parties was 36% for the People Power Party and 34% for the Democratic Party. (Refer to the National Election Opinion Survey Deliberation Committee website) It is an undeniable fact that the Democratic Party is missing a significant number of voters who dislike President Yoon Seok-yeol. Why? If the People Power Party’s emergency committee succeeds in innovation, the People Power Party’s approval rating will rise. Will the Democratic Party be able to turn the situation around then? Representative Lee Jae-myung is responsible for all of the Democratic Party’s crises that I have mentioned so far. Representative Lee Jae-myeong may feel aggrieved and say, “Why do I have to take responsibility for all of that alone?” However, representatives are inherently like that. When Representative Lee Jae-myung went to the national convention in August last year, there were people around him who strongly discouraged him. This is what happened in anticipation of this recent situation. Now that it has come, of course there is no turning back. The responsibility to save the Democratic Party from crisis lies 100% with Representative Lee Jae-myung. Representative Lee Jae-myeong’s own judicial risks must also be overcome. CEO Jaemyung Lee, can you do it? What do you think? Senior Political Reporter [email protected]
2023-12-16 22:30:14
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