Moscow and Kiev are in a dilemma, and Washington is holding tighter to the war cards, despite the “differences” between the two parties
Did Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Washington fail to achieve its goal? A question asked by many American analysts and observers, in the hours that followed Zelensky’s departure from the American capital, heading towards Oslo, to attend a meeting of the Nordic countries, which, as a whole, are rich countries and have a “common interest” with Kiev in standing up to Russian threats.
“Do not abandon an American”
In appearance, Zelensky could only obtain continued “initial support.” But in reality, he did not hear any definitive statement about the impossibility of his country obtaining the promised American support.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (right) is received by Belgian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Sture in Oslo (AFP)
The Democratic-Republican disagreement has involved his country’s support in the issue of border security, which Republicans are betting on turning into a basic political incitement material for voters, enabling them to equate it with the issue of abortion, which has been considered, and still is, a lever for the Democrats that has been tested in many rounds of elections witnessed in several American states in The past months.
According to some observers, the position of the Republican and Democratic parties has not and will not abandon support for Ukraine, and the issue of signing the aid has become a matter of time, despite its embarrassment for Kiev, as a result of the Republicans’ failure to budge from their position to barter the aid for the issue of border security. This is what many leaders of both parties announced, following the end of Zelensky’s “tour” in the halls of the US Congress.
Senate Republican Minority Leader Senator Mitch McConnell said: “Even if we reach an agreement, it is practically impossible to formulate it, pass it through the Senate, and pass it in the House of Representatives before Christmas.” Influential Republican Senator John Cornyn made the same assessment, saying that he believes that drafting the details into legislation capable of being approved by both chambers will turn into an “exercise in January.”
Zelensky mediates between Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (left) and Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (AP)
According to the Semafor news website, the trio consisting of Democratic Senator Chris Murphy, Republican Senator James Lankford, and Independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema are continuing their intense negotiations on the border security issue, with the “West Wing” now in the White House. They held a meeting on Tuesday evening with Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, along with aides to McConnell and aides to Chuck Schumer, the Democratic majority leader. Sinema described the session as “fruitful.”
Biden warns against stopping American support
US President Joe Biden on Tuesday issued a warning to Congress in the presence of the Ukrainian president, stressing that Russian President Vladimir Putin is “counting” on Washington’s support for Kiev ending. Biden said in a joint press conference with Zelensky: “We have to prove him wrong.” The US President strongly attacked Republican representatives who are obstructing the approval of a new military aid package for Ukraine worth $61 billion. Biden stressed that “Congress must approve an extension (of aid) to Ukraine,” saying that not doing so would be a “Christmas gift” to Putin. The American President said, “History will be a harsh judge of those who turned their backs on the cause of freedom.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (right) is received by Belgian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Sture in Oslo (AFP)
For his part, the Ukrainian president confirmed that he had received “positive” indicators from Congress but was awaiting the results, at a time when American lawmakers are strongly divided over approving a new military aid package for Kiev. The margin available for Congress to approve a $61 billion aid package for Ukraine before the end of the year continues to narrow.
Putin with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov (AP)
The US Congress has approved more than $110 billion in aid to Ukraine since the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022, but it has witnessed obstruction since last week regarding the additional aid requested by the US President. During the meeting, Zelensky stressed that the Ukrainian forces “prove every day that Ukraine is capable of victory” over Russia, rejecting some people’s doubts about that after a disappointing counterattack they launched in the summer against the Russian army. Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson expressed these doubts, saying: “It appears that the Biden administration wants to provide billions of dollars without proper oversight and without a real strategy to achieve victory.” The Republican Party is increasingly skeptical about the feasibility of providing additional military aid to Ukraine.
New dynamics
Some say that the dynamics of the Ukrainian-Russian war have entered a new phase, after achieving many of its strategic goals, through the erosion of Russia’s position as a major power, and its being forced to seek the help of “pariah” powers, such as Iran and North Korea, to be able to continue its war.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (AFP)
According to the statements of Pentagon leaders, which were issued even before the appearance of press reports, which talk about a change in war strategies in the next stage, through the localization of defense industries in Ukraine, and the use of new military tactics, the next stage will witness more American pressure on the European allies, To increase their support for Ukraine, which at least explains the significance of Ukrainian President Zelensky heading directly to Oslo.
In this context, it was noteworthy to reveal a US intelligence document, declassified and referred to Congress on Tuesday, which estimated the number of Russian soldiers killed or wounded since the start of the war in Ukraine at about 315,000, and the loss of 2,200 tanks out of 3,500 that Russia owned before. the war. Although the document did not mention the Ukrainian losses, which are also huge, it indicates that the difficulties that Russia will face are no less than the awkwardness of Ukraine’s position, in light of its inability to replenish its reserves, despite its partial “adaptation” to the requirements of the war, and it calls on its president, Vladimir Putin. He announced the call for new mobilization as he prepares to renew his election.
Jens Stoltenberg speaks in Oslo, Norway (EPA)
Despite the advantages he enjoys in terms of numbers and weapons, Putin also faces restrictions that prevent his forces from again attacking the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, or other major cities. Russia lost large numbers of soldiers in its offensive maneuvers last year, and gained little territory except for the city of Bakhmut. As Ukraine builds defensive fortifications along the front, Russia may continue to suffer heavy losses without getting much in return.
According to analysts and former American officials, the war’s transformation into a long confrontation makes a major new campaign, whether from Russia or Ukraine, unlikely during most of 2024. Ukraine, which depends on the West for weapons and financing, faces short-term pressures that Russia does not face. Kiev’s allies do not have the ammunition and equipment necessary to arm another counterattack soon. But with the United States and the West moving forward with plans to achieve a change in the dynamics of military production to meet the requirements for obtaining weapons and ammunition, time may be sufficient to force Russia to reconsider its war goals, especially since its capabilities do not allow it to keep up with the West in the long term.
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2023-12-13 15:49:23
