Despite the fluctuation of the value of the Syrian pound against the black market dollar at an almost constant rate for about two weeks, not exceeding 200 pounds, whether for sale or purchase, it was noticeable that the price of the parallel market dollar and local market exchanges in areas under regime control, which confused exchange rate movements and doubled the situation. The chaos you are experiencing.
The black market in the capital, Damascus, maintains an exchange rate between 13,800 and 14,000 liras per dollar, and the price in Aleppo increases by 100 liras, while the exchange rate in areas outside the regime’s control has reached 14,500, which increases doubts about the black market being affected by the regime’s influence and its security campaigns against… Cashiers.
Dollar chaos
Although Syrians are accustomed to the difference in the currency market between Syrian regions, it has been observed that there is a state of chaos and confusion in determining the exchange rate approved by money changers, especially in the cities of Damascus and Aleppo, where the difference rises to more than 400 liras over the black market rate. Ahmed, a teacher in the city of Damascus, was surprised by the large discrepancy between the price he got and what one of his friends earned for 200 dollars, which amounted to about 50,000 liras, despite the cashier calculating Ahmed’s dollar at 14,100 liras, an increase of 200 liras over the black market price.
Ahmed confirms that the exchange rates in Damascus are no longer fixed, as others in his close circle received the usual rate, and others had their dollar transfers reach 14,500 liras, despite the similar amounts of transfers.
According to local sources, several standards have emerged to determine the value of the dollar, most notably the dollar of the eastern region, which has become the most important standard on which the currency markets in the city of Damascus move, due to doubts about the actual value of the lira within the regime-controlled areas governed by the Central Bank.
Goods determine the dollar price
The sources explain the many factors that entered into speculation in the currency market, created by the nature of black market money changers and their need for the dollar after the restrictions on its traditional sources, which leads them to adopt high prices to attract customers.
In addition to the currency market in the city of Qamishli, which is under the control of the SDF in eastern Syria, and which is leading the campaign to increase the dollar, sources indicate that some money changers rely on local market prices and inflation in determining the approximate value of the dollar, especially since the majority of them are merchants who rely on remittance dollars in Financing their business.
She adds, “The scarcity of foreign exchange liquidity in Damascus due to the security tightening and the pursuit of money changers to control the rise in the black market, led to a loss of confidence in the pricing of the market in the regime areas and the transfer of the destination of many transfers to the offices of Idlib and Al-Hasakah, from which they are exchanged for the lira and enter the regime areas to benefit from the exchange difference, which ranges between 50 And 70 thousand liras for every 100 dollars, and thus merchants lose their sources of financing.”
Prices are unreal
Banking expert Dr. Firas Shaabo confirms that the dollar exchange rates in Syria are unreal and higher than its specified value, as the regime is trying to stabilize the value of the lira for security reasons, at a time when commodity prices are rising, which represents one of the most important criteria for measuring currency strength.
He says: “There is great chaos in the currency markets in Syria, reflected in the official banking system by adopting many and multiple exchange rates, and tightening restrictions on dealing in currencies other than the lira, in exchange for banking freedom in areas outside its control and the control of merchants in the market, which created a state of confusion and lack of confidence in exchange rates.” Official and unofficial.
He adds: “The huge demand for currency and the transfer of remittances to SDF-controlled areas in particular created a gap between the exchange rates in their areas and those of the regime, which helped companies exploit it, so that they exchange dollars and deliver them in pounds to their final destination in regime areas, and thus the continuation of The dollar is out of the reach of the central bank.
Shaabo expects the exchange rate of the lira to fall in regime-controlled areas during the next few weeks, especially since the security tools it adopts to stabilize prices represent short-term solutions and carry serious repercussions for the economy.
Traders and workers in the currency markets fear that the regime will have a role in the collapse of the lira outside its areas of control, especially since the Central Bank had previously taken similar steps before withdrawing foreign exchange from the SDF areas to replenish its coffers. However, economists, including Firas Shaabo, believe that this step was not It promises to gain a lot for the regime with the lira’s withdrawal from the accounts of the forces controlling northern and eastern Syria.
2023-12-10 10:29:00
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