Around the parliament, a noise is raised, rhetorical swords and shields are shining…
Governance in Bulgaria produces a lot of noise as a side effect. And even more precisely: part of the management – GERB and DPS, daily generate extremely high levels of sound pollution in the scandalous register. They believe that this is advantageous for them because it puts their PP-DB opponents at a disadvantage and erodes support for them. The local elections and recent sociological surveys do not confirm this hypothesis, but this does not prevent GERB and DPS from persisting in their strategy.
In such a situation it is very important to distinguish the noise in the system from what is actually happening:
Noise 1
The “scandal” with the dismissal of the director of “Pirogov” by the Minister of Health Professor Hinkov. The whole country is concerned about who should run the hospital and whether the audit reports on it – which contain sufficiently serious violations – are true or not. GERB and DPS go so far as to demand a veto over the personal decisions of ministers and threaten to boycott the adoption of the budget if it is not theirs.
Reality 1
Ministers have operational autonomy and are responsible for the appointments and dismissals of hospital directors. In the current situation, the ministert cannot be changed before the rotation and will stay at least by her side. The director of “Pirogov” will probably remain, despite the obvious violations he committed.
The country’s budget will not be blocked. The generated noise is just a PR campaign and a “demonstration of force” on the part of GERB and DPS. Otherwise, if arrogant partisanship could fly, targets would float around the political space, among them Professor Kostadin Angelov it would stand out with its bright plumage.
Noise 2
From the month GERB and DPS make noise around the “derogation” of Lukoil to work with Russian oil. In the summer, they voted to extend the derogation until October 2024. But then they thought of something else and Delyan Dobrev started waving his traditional tables, according to which Bulgarian citizens always lose a levche or at least 75 cents per liter of something.
They also moved in apparently insane proposals to remove the derogation from today to tomorrow. PP-DB were accused of not being Euro-Atlantic – by the people who built “Turkey Stream” and bought two unnecessary reactors from Russia, with a total cost of the two “deals” of about BGN 4-5 billion for the country. Finally, Borissov vowed to resign if he conceded the derogation. Despite the uproar, however, a concession was reached – an agreement on what was proposed by the government, namely – that the derogation should remain until March, and that exports should be stopped from January 2024.
Reality 2
“Lukoil” has not paid profit tax for more than ten years during the management of GERB – this is a striking fact that has not been rationally explained so far. And there is no way to explain it.
Borisov’s word does not make a hole: he will not resign.
“Lukoil” is selling the refinery in Burgas and it is likely that this will be done with an Azeri company (at least it is not with a Russian loan). In a similar transaction that looks just like Lukoil’s attempt to protect its assets from sanctions and retroactive taxes, Bulgarian players will be able to “hook” on the new buyer and cache their political influence. Suspicions here naturally fall on DPS and Mr. Delyan Peevski, whose business-political career has followed Dogan’s model of “portion distribution”. This allocation is precisely the caching of political influence through facilitation in the passage of legislation, decisions by regulators, prosecutors, judges, etc.
It is possible that in the “Lukoil” case Mr. Peevski is completely innocent and that others are the players. But this will become clear only after the possible sale of the refinery, and it would be one of the big surprises in Bulgarian politics.
Anyway, the fuss over the derogation cannot be explained by concern for the public interest: if it were so, the current decision would have been reached with calm talks within the framework of the “non-coalition”. As well as no demonstrations of who has the political clout to cache.
Noise 3
Constitutional reforms are not worth it, but GERB-DPS will accept them by Christmas. The “fathers of the constitution” – Borisov and Peevski – know what needs to be done and will push it through the parliament.
Reality 3
In this round of constitutional amendments, the important topics are the division of the SJC into two and the limitation of the powers of the Prosecutor General. These amendments will happen, perhaps with small adjustments to the proposals, because of the opinion of the Venice Commission.
It’s also meaningful the extension of the functioning of the National Assembly in case of extraordinary elections – this will reduce the amount of time the country is left without a functioning parliament. The criticized proposal – that the president’s choice of an acting prime minister be reduced to the presidents of the National Assembly and the Central Bank, plus the governor of the BNB – is product of the GERD-DPS tandem and is likely to be reconsidered.
One might think about including the option for the resigned government to continue until the election of a new government, which is also the most logical procedure in parliamentarism. Whatever the clamor, it is likely that constitutional amendments will be passed that will give a chance to reboot the judiciary and its administration. In fact real judicial reform will begin after these amendmentswhen it will become clear whether certain parties have refused to send loyal magistrates to key positions in return for impunity.
Noise 4
The budget is out of whack, the country is in debt and taking out unaffordable loans, the revenues will not be collected, the deficit will be huge…
Reality 4
None of this buzz is true, but it doesn’t stop. The 2023 budget will end up on target and probably with a smaller deficit than predicted. New loans taken do not increase the debt-to-GDP ratio – it’s just that Bulgaria has a much increased GDP and greater credit “leverage”, which should be used for investments in the country’s infrastructure.
Next year’s budget also has serious buffers that can be used in the event of a sharp deterioration in the economic situation.
Noise 5
The government is failing on Schengen.
Reality 5
There is likely to be good news on this topic around Christmas. But even if it isn’t, with this government, Bulgaria has a much better chance for Schengen and the Eurozone than with a GERB-DPS government (with support from Vazrazhdane, ITN and BSP). After all, in such combinations, the country for 13 years could not smell Schengen and the Eurozone, despite the generally favorable economic and foreign policy situation.
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However, the systematic raising of scandalous noise achieves one undeniable effect: people stop listening to politicians and cover their ears. This also leads to a general erosion of trust in all political subjects, which is reported by sociological surveys.
And something even more important: against the background of incessant scandalous noise, the good news is not noticed. And there are such – restored international trust, which also leads to better chances for Schengen and the Eurozone, as well as the changed fiscal policy, which gives the prospect of more significant growth and a reduction of inequality in the country (which is already registered by the GINI coefficient of the country).
In two words: it may turn out, hbehind the noise, work is also being done. But as always – some do it, and others make noise.
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This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of Club Z, the Bulgarian editorial team and DV as a whole.
2023-12-08 18:22:40
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