The Climate Research Center released its 18th annual analysis of global CO2 emissions on Tuesday. It therefore estimates that the total this year will be 1.1 per cent higher than last year.
– We continue to see record growth in clean energy, but at the same time have not been able to adequately control the growth in fossil fuels. Therefore, global CO2 emissions continue to rise, says senior researcher Glen Peters at Cicero in a press release. He is part of the leadership team of the Global Carbon Project, which is behind the report.
There is still some uncertainty around the growth in CO2 emissions, as there are still a few weeks left in 2023.
Air traffic has picked up again after the corona pandemic. This also increases emissions from this sector, Cicero’s report on world CO2 emissions shows. Illustration photo: Håkon Mosvold Larsen / NTB Show more
Not on schedule
In recent years, growth has averaged 0.5 per cent. Emissions are now 6 percent higher than when the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015.
– The development in global emissions is not going in the right direction and clearly shows that action is more urgent than ever if we are to have the opportunity to reach the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to below two degrees, says Cicero director Kristin Halvorsen.
– Both Norway and the world must move away from investments in new oil, gas and coal supplies, she says.
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Airplane, China and India
CO2 emissions from coal are expected to increase by 1.1 per cent and reach a new peak this year. The previous peak was in 2014. The increase mainly comes from China and India, while there is a decrease in emissions from coal in the USA and the EU.
For oil, emissions are likely to increase by 1.5 per cent, but are still below the level from 2019, i.e. before the pandemic. Emissions from gas are increasing by half a percent this year – here a decline in the EU is expected to balance much of the growth in China.
Much of the growth in emissions comes from international aviation and from India and China. But for the latter, it could have been even worse, if it weren’t for the country also developing renewable energy, explains senior researcher Jan Ivar Korsbakken in Cicero.
– China has had sustained strong growth in wind and solar energy. Without that increase, emissions growth would have been much higher. But the growth in solar and wind has not been enough to meet sharply increased demand for electricity combined with reduced hydropower production due to drought. This resulted in an increase in coal-fired power, says Korsbakken.
In addition, emissions from transport and travel have increased after last year’s pandemic-related decline.
Tipped over the two-degree target
Less petrol and diesel
Although the project has not looked specifically at Norwegian emissions, senior researcher Robbie Andrew says that indicators from two of the sectors with the largest emissions can give a clue as to which way it is going.
– Monthly figures from the oil and gas sector until September estimate that emissions in Norway may end up slightly lower than in 2022, while monthly figures for domestic sales of oil products until September show a decrease of around 2 per cent for petrol and 5 per cent for diesel, says Andrew.
– Although most of the change in emissions from Norwegian road transport in recent years is due to fluctuations in the proportion of biofuel, electric cars now cut Norwegian emissions by more than one million tonnes of CO2 per year. This rises as the number of electric cars increases, he says.
But at the same time as less petrol and diesel is sold, increases, the consumption of aviation fuel has increased by 18 per cent, in line with domestic air traffic returning to the same level as before the pandemic, Cicero points out.
2023-12-05 04:08:31
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