In the show What will happen to Russia? a conversation with political scientist Kārli Daukšta.
As usual, we start with the possible development scenario, namely that we have Vladimir Putin and his regime for a long time. A year ago, when this program was conceived, the view of their situation was more optimistic: Ukraine had been successful at the front, had recovered relatively large territories that had been seized by Russia at the beginning of the war. The most optimistic people talked about the fact that Ukraine could very soon break this land corridor that Russia has managed to create along the Black Sea to Crimea, perhaps even occupy the Crimean peninsula. And, of course, he predicted that all this would have a devastating effect on Putin’s regime, on the survival of this regime. A great many arguments have been made which have been shown to be inadequate over the past year. Putin’s regime has turned out to be much more stable than it thought, it can afford to deposit hundreds of thousands of people on Ukrainian soil. It has survived such rather serious riots in Russia itself at Midsummer this year. What does it look like now, how stable is the Putin regime, how long can it afford to go to war and with what losses?
“We probably have to look at it from two points of view, firstly, what Putin and his regime want, secondly – what the world wants, and, in my opinion, also thirdly – what Russia itself wants in general and in what way it, both the elite and the mass of the population. there is no specific method of analysis,” Kārlis Daukšts believes.
He mentions a publication in the German publication “Bild” that there are still talks between Biden, Scholz and also involving Russia.
“Simply speaking, the West is also physically, morally and financially exhausted, which is why we are currently thinking about how to resolve the conflict not only on the battlefield, but perhaps in some way to look for diplomatic solutions. Of course, that
In this case, Russia wants to take advantage of this situation and wants to conclude a peace treaty. Putin, I think, said this very openly three or four times when there was a G20 conference, where he spoke remotely, but he talked about the fact that we want peace, we need peace and peace again, but he understands this peace in a very special way – half You give back Ukraine, we will talk about the future. And this position is acceptable to some of the people who say that killing is enough and that we need to make peace just to stop the killing.
Such a position is humanly very justified, it affects a relatively wide mass of the population on the Ukrainian side,” Kārlis Daukšts analyzes in the introduction of the program.
Summarizing and summarizing, which of the three scenarios do you think is the most likely for future development, or maybe there is some sequence or some hybrid variants?
“For another 10 years, there will be the same slow supply of material, it is impossible to predict further, either to one side or to the other side. Of course, if one of the coups, then maybe one that will bring much worse than Putin for the time being. Yukas are also very dangerous for Latvia, and that’s why I watch and analyze the events in Russia very carefully,” admits Kārlis Daukšts.
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2023-11-30 13:53:20
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