For the freed hostages and the suffering civilian population in the Gaza Strip, the agreement between Israel and Hamas is a blessing – but for the Israeli military it is a blow. “From a military point of view, this is an undesirable development,” comments military historian Danny Orbach of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. “The biggest danger now is that the army will lose its momentum.”
In recent weeks the military has been increasingly refining its strategy, according to Orbach. Stopping operations is now like stopping a machine that is performing very well and “getting it running again will be more difficult”.
The ceasefire has already been extended for another two days. However, the military operations of both camps could be suspended in total for a maximum of 10 days.
Hamas benefits from the truce
Hamas will emerge stronger from the truce, Orbach emphasizes, explaining that it will use the time to regroup. The Islamist organization is simultaneously seeking to gather intelligence on the formation of the Israeli army. During the ceasefire, Hamas members have the advantage of being able to move freely, without fear of attack.
Israeli media warn that during the same period Hamas could be supplied with weapons smuggled in from Egypt, while Orbach speculates that the organization is collecting additional supplies and fuel that arrive as part of the agreement to send aid.
Furthermore, the expert fears that Hamas could attempt to transport displaced residents, through its underground tunnels, back to the north of the Gaza Strip, thus undermining the army’s evacuation efforts. “Hamas wants the fighting to take place in densely populated areas because its defense strategy relies on civilians,” says the military historian.
According to eyewitnesses, hundreds of people from the south returned during the ceasefire back to their – largely destroyed – homes in the north. Many wanted to see their homes and take some of their belongings. The Israeli army, which had forbidden the return of civilians there, used tear gas and sometimes regular bullets to prevent the Palestinians from returning.
Both the north and other parts of the Gaza Strip have been significantly affected by Israeli airstrikes and fighting that has been going on for weeks. Casualties among the Palestinian population are high – according to the Hamas-controlled health authorities, the dead in the Gaza Strip reach 15,000. More than 36,000 have been injured and medical aid is severely limited.
Many hostages remain in the hands of Hamas
The cease-fire agreement calls for the exchange of 100 Hamas hostages for up to 300 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons. Therefore, Hamas will keep 240 more people kidnapped by Israel as a bargaining chip. According to Orbak, Hamas will seek to extend the truce as much as possible.
The terrorist organization hopes that Israel will limit operations in the Gaza Strip as part of the cease-fires and eventually agree to a permanent ceasefire, writes the Israel Hayom newspaper. Despite the positive results, Israel is still far from achieving its military goals.
How is Israel reacting?
After the October 7 attack, the Israeli army aims to destroy the military capabilities and exterminate the leadership of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, as well as to release all hostages. The shorter the ceasefire, the better for the Israeli military, Orbach explains.
According to military sources, during the ceasefire Israeli soldiers remain in the Gaza Strip. The military is focused on planning the next phases of the war, says spokesman Daniel Hagari. On the order of Defense Minister Yoav Gallad, the army’s weapons transfers continue.
During the truce, according to Orbach, Israeli forces are also gathering intelligence on the enemy, for example with interception technologies. At the same time, there is aerial surveillance in the southern and northern parts. The army is strengthening its defenses in the Gaza Strip, building roadblocks and fortifications in the occupied territories. “However, for the Israeli army the truce entails more disadvantages than advantages,” sums up Orbach. After the ceasefire, the Israeli army wants to continue its operation in the Gaza Strip for at least two more months, as Defense Minister Gallad said.
Israeli media estimate that a stronger Hamas will pose a greater threat to the Israeli army – Orbak also estimates that with the resumption of fighting there will be significantly more dead Israeli soldiers: “In the end, the lives of the soldiers are at risk, to save those of the abductees.” A sacrifice, however, that has value for the Israelis, as the expert underlines.
According to Orbach, the truce is not really decisive for the outcome of the war, which Israel could win, as long as there is not particularly strong pressure for a permanent cease-fire – whether that pressure comes from abroad or from relatives of the hostages inside.
Source: German wave
