For many, the rise of PVV leader Geert Wilders was a big surprise, but the seeds of his success were already planted in the summer. By its electoral competitor, the VVD, say political scientists Joost van Spanje and Matthijs Rooduijn.
“De VVD heeft de deur voor de PVV om mee te regeren opengezet. Daardoor kregen mensen met zorgen over immigratie opeens een extra keuze voor een grote partij”, zegt Van Spanje, hoogleraar aan de University of London.
De politicoloog heeft internationaal veel onderzoek gedaan naar de omgang met radicaal-rechtse partijen. Hij zag dat die werden buitengesloten en dat de standpunten werden overgenomen: isoleren en imiteren.
Demissionair premier Mark Rutte kon dat als geen ander, zegt Van Spanje. Hij hield daarmee de PVV relatief klein. Eerst bij de Tweede Kamerverkiezingen in 2017 en daarna in 2021. “Rutte zei letterlijk tegen Wilders: de kans dat ik met jou ga regeren is nul. Maar hij nam de agenda van hem wel over.”
Dat deed Rutte bijvoorbeeld met zijn ingezonden brieven in die campagnes. “Doe normaal of ga weg”, schreef hij over mensen die in zijn woorden homo’s lastigvallen, vrouwen in korte rokjes uitjouwen of gewone Nederlanders uitmaken voor racisten.
Dat imiteren doet huidig VVD-leider Dilan Yesilgöz ook, zegt Van Spanje. “Maar Yesilgöz maakte daarbij een kapitale fout. Zij isoleerde Wilders niet. De blunder van het decennium. Want waarom zou een kiezer die vindt dat de integratie is mislukt de VVD steunen als hij ook PVV kan stemmen?”
Signals for the radical right are green
Timing plays an important role in this, says Rooduijn (University of Amsterdam). “The signals are green for a radical right-wing party.”
There has been a lot of dissatisfaction about politics for a long time, because of the benefits scandal and the recovery operation in Groningen. At the same time, the government has fallen on migration. That theme was already important to voters. Rooduijn: “A right-wing radical party can flourish in those circumstances.”
Good circumstances do not automatically mean success. Wilders has made good use of it, Rooduijn believes. “He has taken a constructive stance in debates and interviews. He said he would become a prime minister for all Dutch people and is willing to negotiate with other parties.”
That does not mean that Wilders changes his views. He gives them a different priority. Reducing the number of asylum seekers is “a hundred times more important” for the PVV leader than the ban on mosques, the Koran and Islamic schools, he said in an interview with NU.nl. These positions are not consistent with the Constitution. “Wilders has not become less radical in that sense,” says Rooduijn.
VVD members prefer Wilders to Timmermans
According to Rooduijn, the interesting thing is that Dutch people do not think differently about immigration than in 2021, research shows. “Views on immigration have remained fairly stable in the Netherlands.”
The PVV has become so big because people who were already negative about immigration policy have now converted this into a voting choice. Between 2021 and 2023, no less than 15 percent of VVD voters switched to the PVV, an initial analysis shows.
At a certain point it also became clear that VVD voters would rather be in a coalition with the PVV than with Frans Timmermans’ GL-PvdA, according to research by, among others. One today.
“Wilders took advantage of that,” says Rooduijn. “His message was: vote for me and you will get a right-wing cabinet, and certainly not a cabinet with Timmermans.”
The VVD hoped to attract the less right-wing PVV voters. “That tactic came back like a boomerang,” says Rooduijn. “You can speak of a strategic mistake.”
2023-11-23 17:20:47
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