Below you can see the results in the final poll of the three polling agencies. How it is possible that the PVV polled lower than the result may have to do with many things. It does not necessarily indicate that the polling agencies were wrong.
For example, the final polls took place before the final debates. There is a possibility that people switched at the last minute, for example after seeing such a final debate or after seeing the polls.
As can be seen above, Peil.nl from Maurice de Hond came closest to the actual result of 37 seats for the PVV, followed by I&O. In the Ipsos poll, the VVD even came out higher than Geert Wilders’ party.
Something wrong with the measurements?
8, 9 and 10 seats next to it? It is obvious to say that the polling agencies were completely wrong. Political scientist and researcher Sjoerd van Heck from Ipsos says just the opposite.
“The same deviations were measured at three agencies, that is no coincidence. If it were the case that the other polling agencies were one or two seats wrong with the PVV, then there would be something wrong with our measurements. There is simply around PVV has created a momentum on the day before the elections and the election day itself.”
According to Van Heck, the difference proves that a lot has happened in the last few hours. He speaks of a ‘recurring phenomenon’. “We also saw it in 2021 with Sigrid Kaag of D66. In the elections before that, it was the VVD that benefited from the last-minute effect.”
The researcher specifically talks about a bandwagon effect. “If a party is only talked about in positive connotations in the polls, then some voters have the feeling: I should be there.”
24 deviations in total
Finally, how big are the differences with the other parties? What is the total number of deviations? In the previous House of Representatives elections in 2021, Peil.nl deviated the least from the actual result with 22 deviations. This year, this polling agency counted a total of 24 deviations. I&O Research arrives at the same number. At Ipsos this number rises to 26.
Below is the table with the deviations:
In absolute numbers it can be seen that there were also some deviations among VVD and GL/PvdA, in relative terms the Party for the Animals is particularly striking: at two polling agencies that party came in at 5, which became 3.
‘Campaign is too short’
The fact that there is so much difference between the final poll and the results also sends a message to politicians. It indicates that many voters still have doubts at the last minute, says researcher Van Heck. “They apparently do not see enough of the differences between the parties. I personally think that three weeks of campaigning is too short for the voter. People need more time to consider all the parties’ positions.”
According to political reporter Frits Wester, Geert Wilders himself would not have dared to dream of 37 seats for the PVV. In this video Wester tells you about the winners, losers and what to do next with the formation:
2023-11-23 12:12:55
#seats #PVV #close #polling #stations #time
