For the second year in a row, Brazilian exports surpassed the US$300 billion mark, the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (MDIC) announced this Monday (20). Until the third week of November, sales abroad totaled US$300.014 billion and imports totaled US$213.502 billion. As a result, the trade balance accumulates a positive balance of R$86.512 billion in the year.
The result was achieved after the trade balance registered a surplus of US$ 1.963 trillion in the third week of November. Just last week, the country exported US$6.055 billion and imported US$4.092 billion.
With last week’s result, the balance accumulates a positive result of US$6.003 billion in November. The indicator is about to surpass the record surplus for the month, of US$6.2 billion, registered in November last year. In the month, exports total US$ 17.226 billion; and imports, R$11.222 billion.
The trade balance record was reached in 2022, when exports exceeded imports by US$61.525 billion. The second best result occurred in 2021, when the trade surplus was US$61.407 billion.
I estimated
Despite the recent devaluation of commodities, the government forecasts a record positive balance of US$93 billion for 2023, against a previous projection of US$84.7 billion, made in July.
According to estimates, presented in October, exports will be stable in 2023, rising just 0.02% and ending the year at US$334.2 billion. Projections are updated every three months. Imports will fall 11.5% and close the year at US$241.1 billion.
Forecasts are much more optimistic than those of the financial market. The Focus bulletin, a survey of market analysts released every week by the Central Bank, projects a surplus of US$77 billion this year.
