The struggle for world leadership between the US and China leads to the need for dialogue, because a decision is now being made whether the struggle will take the form of competition or confrontation, and Taiwan will always remain a possible fuse in US-China relations. Attention and aid have moved from Ukraine to the Middle East, and both Russia and the United States have an interest in freezing the conflict in Ukraine, however paradoxical it may seem at first glance, commented Lyubomir Kyuchukov, director of the Institute of Economics and International Relations, in the show “Investor Club” on Bloomber TV.
The dialogue is the positive from the meeting between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden, and now the question is whether this is an episode or whether some processes will be started, there is a desire for communication, but it is difficult to talk about cooperation, Kyuchukov said.
The general context is the struggle for world leadership between the US and China, and hence the need for dialogue, because a decision is currently being made whether the struggle will take the form of competition or confrontation. This struggle no longer covers only trade, investment and finance, but also all spheres, especially geopolitics. China, as an economic catch-up, is an expansionist nation that seeks to expand its influence, the guest explained. The problem for China is the sanctions and restrictions on their goods, which was one of the topics that were raised at the meeting, and the US, for its part, made a request that China limit part of its exports.
President Xi said that peace in Taiwan should lead to a change in relations and a peaceful reunification so that there is no further tension. The guest believes that Taiwan will always remain a possible fuse in US-China relations.
China left the position of an interested international observer and began to act actively in the international field and in relation to the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. Biden said that one of the things set as a priority for the US is the desire for China to exert influence on Iran so that the situation does not escalate into a regional conflict.
According to Kyuchukov, Israel is about to lose all sympathy and support because of the humanitarian disaster in Gaza. One of the main priorities of the US is that the war does not go beyond the borders of Israel and Gaza, which puts the North American country in a special position, since on the one hand it supports its main ally in the Middle East, and on the other hand it does not want to be drawn into a conflict. which may be necessary if Iran joins it.
It gives the impression that the West is on the less popular side in the war between Hamas and Israel, but these dividing lines are already visible in European societies as well, Kyuchukov said. This is seen in Great Britain, where Minister Suella Braverman was dismissed from her post as Home Secretary for comments about double standards surrounding pro-Palestinian and anti-Semitic demonstrations in the country.
The Ukrainian counter-offensive should have given an answer as to whether a military solution to the war was possible, and this answer turned out to be no, according to the guest. He added that there are now two possible policy approaches of Ukraine’s allies, the first is more weapons to help win the war, and the second, if it is concluded that the war cannot be won, to seek transition to a political solution.
The guest said that there is a change in the discourse, until September this year there was talk that Ukraine should be helped to win, now political speeches in Europe and the USA say that Ukraine should not be allowed to lose.
Attention and aid moved from Ukraine to the Middle East. As there is no information behind the actions of “Hamas” there is encouragement from Russia or Iran.
“In the United States, above all, attitudes are brewing that a war, or at least the question of how long a war that cannot be won, can last; Then this redirection of attention to the Middle East can create the favorable environment for the US to find another approach, I’m talking again about the political approach to the conflict in Ukraine. What is interesting is that both Russia and the US have an interest in freezing the conflict in Ukraine, however paradoxical it may seem at first glance,” said Kyuchukov.
He explained that the benefits for Russia would be that it would fix the territorial status quo and be able to concentrate efforts on the development of these areas, as well as seek the lifting of some of the sanctions. The benefits for the US would be that a frozen conflict on Russia’s border always remains a flashpoint against Moscow. The other benefit for the US would be that it would allow it to focus on its confrontation with China, as well as save it from the risk of entering into a geopolitical conflict in two places.
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2023-11-19 08:00:00
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