The political future of former president Mauricio Macri after the alliance he formed with the presidential candidate of La Libertad Avanza (LLA), Javier Milei, to face the runoff on November 19 It is still a mystery because, even with the eventual victory of the far-right candidate, “it is not certain” that he can play the role of “shadow ruler.”evaluated the sociologist Mariana Gené.
“Macri, with his strategy of supporting Milei, assumed that after the libertarian’s eventual victory he will be able to govern in the shadows and set up the government for him. However, that possibility is not certain and in the medium or long term, the future of the former president in that coalition is unknown,” Gené, a doctor in Social Sciences from the University of Buenos Aires (UBA) and the School of Higher Studies, told Télam. in Social Sciences from (EHESS) in Paris.
Gene is also associate researcher at Conicet and teacher at the Institute of Higher Social Studies (IDAES) of the National University of San Martín (UNSAM). In addition, she is the author of the books “The political thread” and “The intact dream of the center-right”, the latter co-authored with Gabriel Vommaro; both were published by Siglo XXI Editores.
-Télam: In what aspects of Javier Milei’s campaign do you see Macri’s influence after the political alliance that both formed weeks ago?
-Mariana Gené: In his last appearances he took part in a more moderate speech than we knew him for. This was even transferred to his running mate, Victoria Villarruel, who in the debate of vice presidential candidates with Agustín Rossi, used a speech more similar to that of Macri at the close of the 2015 campaign, promising that he will not end with his health. and public education, among other rights. Milei and Villarruel are speaking to voters who are scared by some of the most radical and disruptive proposals. There you can see part of the influence of that union with a part of Together for Change. And also in that idea of ”it is continuity or change”, which is exactly the proposal that Patricia Bullrich presented in her campaign as a candidate. It is very clear that it is part of a strategic decision by Milei to seek out all JxC voters because that would leave him on the verge of victory. The other change is that the alliance with Macri gave Milei an image of governability that he completely lacked. Until then she could win an election, but at times her presentations were of a very unprofessional level. The alliance with Macri also allowed him to have communicating vessels with power actors.
-T: Do you think that this change in strategy will be enough for Milei to convince the JxC voter?
-MG: Milei tries to seduce the hardest voter of Together for Change, the most anti-Kirchnerist. For example, the one she lives in Córdoba, where she also seeks to attract those who voted for Juan Schiaretti. But the JxC vote is heterogeneous and Milei made many gestures offensive to radicalism as a party during her electoral campaign, which earned her rejection from the national leadership. It will be necessary to see if she takes precedence over something that Macri said at the time: that the radical voter has not had the same opinion as the party leaders for a long time and the lines were moving further to the right.
-T: How will Together for Change be after this alliance between Macri and Milei?
-MG: I would not dare to say that JxC broke up, but the statement by the radical leaders that Macri left Juntos does not leave much room for another interpretation. At the same time, it is difficult to know how many votes JxC will have without Macri. A new construction can probably emerge, but that also has to be defined within the PRO. It is difficult for Horacio Rodríguez Larreta to leave the PRO, but perhaps, as in other parties, different internal lines could emerge that make the PRO seem more like Peronism or radicalism. It seems to me that if Milei wins the elections it is almost impossible for Juntos to remain united, because I do not believe that radicalism wants to be a co-ruling party like Macri wants to be. It is difficult for the JxC label to continue to exist.
Now, if Milei loses, I am not sure who would take the step to break that brand that until now was very successful in electoral terms. Although politicians care about ideas and government programs, positions and staying in power are also key. For this reason, leaving a construction that cost them so much work is risky for the different parts that make it up. Even more so with ten governors and being the second largest block in Congress. Things are very broken between them, with deep enmities, but if they blow it up it is very difficult to be competitive in the future in an election. Furthermore, we must see how LLA persists with many deputies and senators with so little cohesion among them, who were united in such a non-organic and disparate way, as a result of the “rental” of party stamps that Milei made in several provinces. It is likely that these representatives and senators will not last as long under that political identification.
-T: What will be Macri’s political future, both in an eventual victory and in a possible defeat for Milei in the runoff?
-MG: Macri left his mark in this alliance with Milei, both due to ideological affinity and due to his very personal rivalry with Sergio Massa. I believe that if he loses he will bear the costs and many will charge him the bill for having endangered something that was as important as the unity of the entire JxC and without consultation. For Macri, since he lost re-election in 2019, it had not been easy for him to occupy the undisputed leadership of JxC because the fight for succession was open. But no new leader was elected internally and now he intends to be the leader again. It is a very risky move because, if he loses Milei, he will be very weakened. However, in the absence of new leadership, I do not imagine that he is going to be a marginal or defeated person who has no impact, especially since he has deputies who respond to him very faithfully. It is a complex situation because, at the same time, if he wins Milei it is not so clear that, in the medium term, the move has been successful. Even the libertarian winning can become a pyrrhic victory for Macri for several reasons. One, because it is not certain that a new political coalition towards the extreme right will be consolidated. And two, because it seems to me that Macri assumes that with this strategy he will be able to govern in the shadows and set up Milei’s government. It is a possibility that he will achieve it or not, because although Milei shows himself quite openly, we do not know him at all. That is why I say that, in the medium and long term, it could mean a pyrrhic victory for Macri, because although JxC lost the elections – largely due to his responsibility in the internal strategy – he managed to win governorships and, from there, aspire to occupy the main role of the opposition and to triumph in future elections. Macri’s future in this coalition is a question mark.
-T: Do you evaluate that the result of the runoff could give way to a political and social panorama that allows the so-called “rift” to begin to close?
-MG: It is difficult to bury this crack that has been intensifying for many years. The panorama is different depending on who wins the elections. Milei and Macri aim strongly at the crack. They place the other behind that border, whom they identify as absolute evil. Massa, on the other hand, does not have that speech and I do not imagine that he will have it if he wins because he will assume a very fragmented power. He would become president by dint of an anti-Milei vote and being Minister of Economy of a country with triple-digit annual inflation. He does not have much room to deal with the arrogance that the crack represents. At the same time, the term “national unity” seems very elusive to me. But, without a doubt, if he becomes president he will need to form a broad front to negotiate with all parties. There is no room to bet on the crack. It is plausible that those who achieve economic success, manage to lower inflation and improve the purchasing power of salaries will begin to close it. We need someone who has a government with good results; This way I could reduce that emotional and moralizing crack a little.
2023-11-12 18:02:40
#Mariana #Gené #Macri #eventually #govern #shadows #Milei
