I think the Western world will move in the direction of turning on the faucet for aid to Ukraine, predicts the former inspector of the Polish Air Force
Warsaw, Poland07 Nov 2023, 21:58 5014 read 9 comments
Deliveries of Western military equipment have raised ambitions in Kiev, says General Tomas Drevniak пред Wirtualna Polska. As the conflict progressed, it became clear that they were exaggerated and Ukraine’s goals were impossible to achieve.
The West wanted to finish everything quickly and benefit, but it turned out otherwise.
Ukrainian and Russian troops clashed at the front in a clinch. Both sides are bleeding, but the specter of defeat now hangs over the Ukrainians, says Gen. Tomas Drevniak, a former Air Force inspector general and Stratpoints Foundation expert.
Ukraine ultimately loses. This message, albeit between the lines, is read by experts in the text of the interview of the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, General Valery Zaluzhny, for The Economist. He says the conflict has reached an impasse, and overcoming it will require a major technological leap that is yet to emerge.
“He is absolutely right, despite the fact that everything here depends on the starting point”, commented the general. “If we think historically, going back, for example, to the war between the Soviet Union and Finland, then Finland ceded part of its territory, but to this day we think that it won the war. And the same scenario can be repeated in the case of Ukraine.
At the beginning of the conflict, the Ukrainians achieved success, that is, they successfully defended themselves, and later, in the autumn of last year, they carried out a successful counteroffensive. And they believed that they could take back not only the lands occupied by the Russians in 2022, but also those that Russia took in 2014. And it seems that General Valery Zaluzhny spoke about these hopes.
It is not about the fact that Ukraine is losing – in the sense that the Russians will appear in Kiev in two months. Rather, he meant that the goals that Ukraine sets for themselves are unattainable,” summarizes Gen. Drevniak.
The initial Ukrainian successes, supported by a serious injection of Western technology, have awakened great ambitions in Kiev. Today it appears they may have been too big.
It will be difficult for the Ukrainian authorities to tell their citizens about this. The message from President Zelensky and his circle is that they will win this conflict, take Crimea back, and return to the pre-2014 borders. This seems to be exactly what General Zaluzhny was talking about – that this scenario may not be feasible, the general explains.
If Ukraine accepts the loss of territories, it would mean that today it is possible to solve problems by force.
It will turn out that in the 21st century in Europe it is possible to do such things with brutal military force. This also sends a clear signal to the Polish people – that we thought in vain that this conflict would develop somewhere far away from us, in some outskirts of the world. This is the first lesson for us – anything can happen to us.
The second lesson is that there is no country in the world today, other than perhaps the United States and China, which is capable of fighting a long-term struggle on its own. For Poland, this is another argument in favor of creating strong alliances in the European Union and NATO, commented Drevniak.
Ukraine defended most of its territory, its statehood and its capital. It may turn out that it will emerge stronger from this conflict because it will have guaranteed alliances with the US, the EU and NATO.
I will not say that they will trade a piece of land for alliances, but it may turn out that the security of Ukraine will be higher than before the conflict. And to say that Russia will attack a NATO country…
The air forces of the NATO countries would crush this Russia in three days, not even a single tank would be needed. And Russia is in crisis, exhausting its human and technical resources in the fight against Ukraine – in this situation, attacking NATO is like shooting yourself in the head.
Even if the Russians grab some piece of Ukraine for themselves, NATO will not allow them to take other Ukrainian territories, the general predicted.
“Ukraine never admitted its mistakes before Zaluzhny’s statement – Ukrainians loudly sang their chauvinist song and they did it quite effectively at all levels.
But in all that fog they let out, there were signs that all was not right there. Changes in leadership positions, including the Minister of Defense, resignations of a dozen serious generals, corruption cases related to the supply of equipment and military services…
Many of these things leaked through the wall of this chauvinist narrative and now we see that this world, it turns out, is not black and white, that Ukraine has its problems and General Zaluzhny is also talking about them. But I wonder about Zaluzhny, how can he think that something has changed in Russia since the time of Tsarism or the Soviet Union?
They never took people into account, so why should any losses today – material or human – deter Russian military commanders and leaders from achieving their goals?” Gen. Drevniak asks rhetorically.
According to him, Zaluzhny’s words are a call to the West for help.
“But the opportunities of the West are not so great anymore. A significant part of what can be given is already in Ukraine.
The Russians prepared for this conflict, created reserves, and the West remained in a state of blissful calm, and today this conflict is won not by the number of tanks and armored cars, but by logistics.
It is important how many shells can be fired from the guns, how many thousands of tons of fuel can be used in the trenches. Of course, tanks and guns are important, any other equipment is important, but for Ukraine – to which Zaluzhny also drew attention – to get out of this impasse, where forces with similar potential and with a similar structure are opposed, when the Ukrainians do not can push the Russians out of their positions, where they entrenched and strengthened – for that it needs something special,” notes the senior military officer.
In the long term, Ukraine needs aviation.
This, of course, is the pilot in me speaking, but it is entirely possible to imagine that Ukraine is able to create an air umbrella over its troops that extends 50, perhaps even 100 kilometers into Russian fortifications.
Thanks to this, the Ukrainian ground forces will have freedom of action in demining and fighting the enemy. Today, they do not have this freedom – any Ukrainian soldier who tries to defuse mines is fired upon by artillery and aviation, since Ukraine does not have air superiority.
If it had 150-200 modern aircraft and could get an advantage in certain areas, it would be a chance to get out of this impasse, the general commented.
Ukraine will get F-16, but it will have to wait.
But again, we are talking about a drop-by-drop mode: four, six or eight planes will not give the Ukrainians an advantage. Their pilots undergo very simplified training, so they will acquire individual but not system skills, that is, they will not be able to engage in serious mission planning at the operational and strategic level.
It takes years of training and alignment of systems and personnel to achieve this,” explains the military expert.
The Russians will continue to apply increasing pressure to achieve three goals.
First, the West should help Ukraine less and less and be more inclined to force Ukraine to move from trying to solve the problem militarily to political methods of setting the negotiating table.
Second, the more Russia pushes, the stronger its trump cards will be at this table. The third goal is to show their population that in this “special operation”, as the Russians call it, they can achieve some success, explains Gen. Ancient.
And the USA is forced to divide the military support between Ukraine and Israel, commented the senior military officer.
“This attack by Hamas, which took everyone by surprise, was somehow coordinated. Everyone points to Russia, but I think it was Iran that pushed them to this move, relieving Russia and diverting the world’s attention elsewhere.
Iran is starting to become a country that has a lot to gain from this situation – Russia gets a lot of support from there, so it will probably have to give something in return. And Americans must divide their efforts and resources in two directions.
Let us recall that all this time the Americans were closely watching the Far East and China. The United States is getting into increasingly difficult situations and may have serious problems with wanting to be everywhere at once and deliver in all directions,” he said.
The possibilities of the West are gradually running out. Expectations were high, as Ukraine itself fueled those expectations.
Today, politicians and the public in many countries are asking themselves how long this conflict and the pumping of billions of dollars and euros will last?
Everyone thought that everything would be over faster – Ukraine would repel the Russians and we would be able to celebrate our common success and enjoy a peaceful life, and we would also get business benefits because, let’s not be deceived, all this it’s not free.
And now it turns out that these advantages are not visible because the situation is at a standstill. Therefore, I think that the Western world will move in the direction of turning on the faucet for assistance to Ukraine and attempts to bring both sides to the negotiating table,” Gen. Drevniak predicted.
“Looking at how the Americans dose arms supplies, I think they have one goal with two opposite vectors.
On the one hand, weakening Russia plays in their favor, on the other hand, the question arises how much do they want to weaken it?
The Americans are rather betting on the option of weakening Russia, but not so much that a coup is carried out there and the country becomes unstable,” the military officer believes.
“The tens of thousands of victims have had an impact on Russian society to some extent, but actually there is huge support out there for this special operation. People there still believe that these Ukrainians should be called to order.
In addition, Russia does not know how to negotiate – just like in that joke: “He who is “for” can take his hands off and walk away from the wall”.
Either option is good for Russia. An end to the conflict is good, because then the Russians can declare a great success to their population and regain their self-confidence.
The tightening of the conflict is also profitable, because in this situation Ukraine will experience a huge problem with coalitions, for example, in terms of joining NATO, and also sinks deeper and deeper into the pit of bankruptcy,” explains the general.
General conclusions about the situation in Ukraine are becoming less and less optimistic, thinks gen. Ancient.
“We must follow the situation very carefully and draw the appropriate conclusions. A war with Russia, a country with such huge territories, military power and human resources, can only be fought as part of the widest possible coalition.
We must remember this and create such political conditions so that there is no conflict. We must occupy such a place in Europe that an enemy who wants to attack us sees not just Poland, but a participant in a much more serious structure such as NATO and the European Union”, General Tomasz Drevniak concludes.
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2023-11-07 19:58:35
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