US President Joe Biden is losing preferences to his possible rival Donald Trump in five of the six states that could decide the 2024 election, according to a poll conducted for The New York Times (NYT), which published the results exactly one year before the presidential election .
According to the presidential poll, Trump has the upper hand in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania, with a lead of more than four percentage points in all but the last-named state. Biden was only leading in Wisconsin, by two points.
The campaign for the upcoming election is only in its early stages, with the party primaries that will determine the candidates of the two major US political parties not starting until January. So far, however, all indications are that the election will bring a repeat of the fight from 2020. Trump is clearly leading the polls among Republican voters, while Biden is basically unopposed in the Democratic primaries.
The election is scheduled for November 5, 2024. In the American system, the votes of the so-called electors, which are fought for at the level of individual states, are decisive. Each state has a certain number of electoral votes that go to the winning candidate, however narrow that victory may be. And since most states long-term lean toward one political party or another regardless of a particular candidate, the winner is often decided in a handful of states that are referred to as key political “battlegrounds.”
In 2020, Biden won all six states that the new NYT poll mapped. The fact that the repetition of this scenario is far from certain is evidenced by a recent poll prepared for the Bloomberg agency, according to which Trump had a narrow lead in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia.
Trump never recognized the results of the last election and remained the leader of the Republican Party after leaving the White House. Even the unprecedented indictments brought against him by state and federal prosecutors this year did not detract from his popularity among Republican voters. In addition, the ex-president was convicted in a civil trial of sexually assaulting a former journalist.
However, Biden is facing huge voter dissatisfaction with current events in the United States. In a new poll by the Ipsos agency, 76 percent of respondents expressed the opinion that the direction of their country is not good. Although inflation in the US has slowed significantly year-on-year and unemployment remains below four percent, voters view Biden’s economic policy rather negatively. In a poll published by the NYT, 37 percent of respondents favored him on this point, while 59 percent expressed more confidence in Trump on the economy.
The “glaring” weakness for the current president is his age, the newspaper writes. Biden, who will turn 81 this month, was rated too old to be an effective president by 71 percent of those polled, including 54 percent of his supporters. For Trump, who is only less than four years younger, this opinion was expressed by only 39 percent of the respondents.
Video: Sample from the opera Playing Trump
Bernhard Lang’s opera Playing Trump had its premiere in Hamburg the year before last, sung by the French soprano Donatienne Michel-Dansac. | Video: Staatsoper Hamburg
2023-11-05 16:22:45
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