In eight of the last ten years, the cryptocurrency market showed growth in October relative to the previous month. On average, the “Uptober effect” for the total capitalization of digital assets is 14%, CoinGecko experts noted.
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Is Uptober a genuine trend or simply a meme?
Our recent study shows that in 8 of the past 10 years, the global crypto market rallied in October compared to the previous month.
Read the full study: pic.twitter.com/8H9ZxMTtGx
— CoinGecko (@coingecko) October 30, 2023
On a monthly basis, October’s growth ranged from 7.3% in 2022 to 42.9% in 2021.
The exceptions were 2014 and 2018, when the market fell by 12.7% and 8.3%, respectively, over the month.
Is Uptober a reality?
According to experts, Uptober is a reality and not just an internet meme. The recently established term is formed from two English words: up (up) and October (October).
“Everything seems to indicate that there is typically a monthly Uptober effect in which the cryptocurrency market rises on the back of high Bitcoin prices,” the researchers said.
Over the course of the month, the rate of the first cryptocurrency exceeded $30,000, and in recent days it tested the level of $35,000. An even more significant rally was demonstrated by a number of altcoins such as Solana (SOL) and Chainlink (LINK).
In the long term, not everything is so rosy
On an annual basis, the Uptober phenomenon does not work as effectively – compared to the beginning of the year, growth was observed only in six out of ten years. The spread of positive indicators ranges from 8.9% to 879.6%.
On the other hand, the October declines in the cryptocurrency market ranged from 5.8% to 67.%.
“This suggests that investors may be more justified in trading the Uptober effect on a short-term monthly basis, compared to the riskier wider range of potential outcomes for long-term investments,” the experts suggested.
In 2023, as of October 30, the growth of market capitalization compared to the previous month was 18.1%. Compared to the beginning of the year, the figure increased by 58.9% and exceeded $1.3 trillion after two quarters of weak dynamics.
You should also be careful at short distances
In six of the eight years in which the Uptober effect was triggered, the upward trend was not consistent throughout October. For example, in 2022, market capitalization declined for 21 out of 31 days and only recovered in the last week. This month there was also a slight decline from the 10th to the 16th.
The exceptions were 2015 and 2021, when the market grew daily throughout October.
Change in cryptocurrency market capitalization at the end of October compared to September 30 and January 1. Data: CoinGecko.
One of the commenters on X offered the new name for the October phenomenon is pumptober, which already hints at a “pump” of crypto assets.
The effects of surrounding months in a community also have their own names. Historically difficult for Bitcoin and the market as a whole, September is associated with Rectember, and November with Downvember.
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After a little bit of Uptober, comes Downvember and Rectember, then soon it will be time to slurp it up real good
— IfOnlyUpOnly (@MrObergeil) October 4, 2022
However, September 2023 did not support the trend attributed to it – at the end of the month, the first cryptocurrency rose in price by 3.9%. This turned out to be the third exception to the historical trend over the past decade.
Data: ForkLog.
Let us recall that Matrixport analysts assumed that by December 2024, Bitcoin quotes will rise to $125,000.
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2023-10-31 12:42:53
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