Oil traders are hedging against the risk of expanding war between Israel and the Palestinian resistance
Oil prices recorded the highest increase in a month, after Iran said that opening a new front in the conflict between the Israeli occupation and the Palestinian resistance is possible. Brent crude futures jumped $4.89, or 5.7%, to $90.89 per barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate crude rose above $87 per barrel, gaining $5 over the week after the outbreak of war.
A more severe escalation could push Israel towards a direct conflict with Iran. In this scenario, Bloomberg Economics estimates that oil prices may jump to $150 per barrel, and global economic growth will decline to 1.7%, a recession that would deduct about a trillion dollars from global economic output.
Last Monday, oil prices rose in the first trading sessions after the start of the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation launched by the Palestinian resistance on occupation military sites and Israeli settlements adjacent to the Gaza Strip, but future contracts lost some of their gains in the next few sessions, after investors ruled out any risks. Directly on oil supplies from the Middle East.
Then prices rose again last Friday, the last session of the week, after Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian warned of opening a new front in the conflict between the Israeli occupation and the resistance if the aggression and siege imposed on Gaza continued.
The Israeli army is expected to launch a ground attack shortly after urging the evacuation of the northern part of Gaza. The options markets, which witnessed huge volatility over the past week, witnessed another move in favor of buying, betting on rising prices, an unusual shift that shows that investors are hedging against the risk of further price rises.
Investors are trying to take into account the possibility of Iran joining the war, and any risk of disruption to broader flows. While supply has not been significantly affected so far, traders said Friday’s rise indicates investors are abandoning bearish bets ahead of the weekend.
In turn, market analyst at OANDA, Edward Moya, said, according to the American Bloomberg Agency, “Crude oil prices are rising as the oil market, which is currently suffering from a shortage in supply, must now deal with more geopolitical instability, and it appears that energy investors “We are convinced that we will see some conflict-related supply disruptions in the near future.”
2023-10-14 22:41:03
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