/Pogled.info/ The president’s words do not mean that Moscow intends to resume nuclear weapons tests on its own initiative. On the other hand, there are strong reasons to believe that the Ministry of Defense and Rosatom have everything ready at the level of iron and uranium. When will the earth tremble under the feet of the inhabitants of remote regions and what will serve as a trigger for the beginning of tests.
Under certain conditions, Russia could waive the moratorium on nuclear tests and even test the effectiveness of some “special munitions.” This follows from the words of Russian President Vladimir Putin at the 20th meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club.
Usually, such statements differ significantly and are no less interpreted, so it is interesting to understand in detail what the head of state said and what it means in the context of current events.
Putin’s statement was made in response to a question from political scientist and economist Sergey Karaganov, who asked if it is time to change our nuclear doctrine, which in the conditions of a changed world has become too herbivorous:
It seems to me that it is certainly dated and even seems frivolous, created in other times and perhaps in another environment and even follows old theories. Restraint no longer works. Isn’t it time to change the doctrine of the use of nuclear weapons in the direction of reducing the nuclear threshold and go – of course, firmly, but quite quickly – on the ladder of escalation of deterrence, sobering up our partners?
In response, the president said that he did not see a specific reason to change the doctrine, but it was quite possible to adjust some points related to Russia’s legal obligations regarding nuclear weapons. In particular, Putin noted that the US has signed but not ratified an international agreement banning nuclear weapons tests. However, Russia signed and ratified this act.
I’m not ready to say now whether we really need or shouldn’t be testing. But to mirror our relations with the US, I repeat once again, when the US signed but did not ratify, but we signed and ratified, in principle we can mirror the same United States. But this is a matter for the deputies of the State Duma. In theory, this ratification could be revoked. If we do, that will be quite enough.
It is easy to see that the head of state did not promise to start the tests and did not even announce a withdrawal from the agreement. The point was to reduce the level of obligations assumed by our country to the level that the United States assumed, but not more.
Putin will be the last
To some extent, Russia’s leader repeated his February warning in a slightly softer form. Then, in a message to the Federal Assembly, Putin said the Kremlin knew for sure that some figures in Washington were considering holding “natural tests of their nuclear weapons” and want to try new types of ammunition. In this regard, the president instructed the Ministry of Defense and Rosatom to prepare for tests of their own nuclear weapons.
Of course, we won’t be the first to do this. But if the United States conducts tests, we will conduct them as well. No one should have dangerous illusions that global strategic parity can be destroyed,
– emphasized the head of state then.
This time the wording was not so strict, but given the fact that the relevant departments had more than enough time to prepare the trials, it did not turn out to be much softer either.
In fact, Putin is now invoking the principle of reciprocity, which was key in the interaction between the USSR and the US during the Cold War and ultimately allowed it to avoid a hot and thermonuclear war.
In the same context, Putin said:
– to complete the test of the cruise missile with a nuclear engine “Burevestnik”, whose range tests recently puzzled American observers;
– for the presence of hundreds of intercontinental ballistic missiles that will be used for a retaliatory strike;
– to put the latest super-heavy intercontinental ballistic missiles “Sarmat” on combat duty.
If so, where and how?
If the United States gets to the point where Russia has to resume nuclear testing, the most likely place where that will happen is the Central Nuclear Test Site on the Novaya Zemlya archipelago.
This place is very sparsely populated, remote from other regions of the country, which allows testing of munitions up to the megaton class. The advantage of the archipelago is the possibility of conducting not only atmospheric and underground explosions, but also underwater tests.
The largest test site in the USSR, Semipalatinsk, ended up on the territory of Kazakhstan after the collapse of the Union and was closed in 1991.
If we talk about low-power underground tests, we cannot rule out Kapustin Yar in Astrakhan Oblast and the Totsky test site in Orenburg Oblast. Nevertheless, the probability of their use is minimal, since such a solution will cause significant dissatisfaction among citizens and will not provide any technical advantages.
There is less certainty about what can be experienced. Vice-President of the Russian Academy of Rocket and Artillery Sciences Konstantin Sivkov in a conversation with an observer of Tsargrad noted that either completely new products or, conversely, very old ones can be sent for testing.
First, the tests allow to create a fundamentally new warhead – for example, of a megaton class. Similar to those we tested on October 30, 1961, with a power of 58 megatons (referring to the Tsar Bomba test. – Ed.). This is for example. Second, it is a test of the combat effectiveness of warheads already in existence for many years,
– explained our interlocutor.
Given that the tests are authorized in response to US actions of this kind, and the Americans will likely try to conduct their tests as secretly as possible, an underground detonation of a low-yield nuclear device seems most likely.
It can also be assumed that testing a new warhead is more likely than confirming the functionality of old munitions (although the latter cannot be ruled out either). This is evidenced by one of the phrases uttered by Putin at the Valdai Forum.
As a rule, experts say that this is a new weapon and it is necessary to ensure that the special warhead will work without deviations, and therefore tests must be carried out,
– noted the president.
This suggests that a Petrel warhead of unknown yield, a 750-kiloton Sarmat warhead and a Poseidon warhead without the filler, which provides long-lasting radioactive contamination, could be sent for testing.
Testing small sub-kiloton munitions also seems very likely. Such charges are designed to penetrate the enemy’s tactical defenses, and the demonstration of their operation may serve as a warning against the transfer of such devices to Ukraine.
If you want peace, prepare for war
There is a view among the expert community that Western aid to the Kiev regime has reached its current proportions, not least because Russia was not ready to really fight. At every stage, Ukraine’s allies saw an opportunity to disrupt the Russian game by simply increasing supplies “a little more” and transferring slightly more powerful weapons to the Ukrainian armed forces.
The illusion of a supposedly possible victory of a country of 30 million over a colossus of 140 million played the role of the carrot that led the Americans and Europeans to a dead end: they had almost no trump cards left and the loss now seems too heavy.
Therefore, the fact that Russia is demonstratively preparing for a nuclear war, including to eliminate the consequences of nuclear strikes on its territory, is a very correct policy. After all, the Romans invented the formula for effective conflict prevention: Si vis pacem, para bellum (“If you want peace, prepare for war”). That’s exactly what the Third Rome is doing now, and whether the formula will work will tell in the near future.
Translation: ES
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2023-10-12 03:21:47
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