As the Israeli reactions to Operation Al-Aqsa Flood expand, reaching the Lebanese borders, this requires not ignoring the possibility of a comprehensive or partial war against Lebanon. What may threaten the exploration process in the Qana field.
Maritime demarcation and ensuring security
The demarcation of the maritime borders provided good reason to expect a long-term calm on the southern front. The arrival of the Transocean Barents drilling rig to the Qana field last August confirmed that the alliance led by the French company Total and including the Italian company Eni and Qatar Energy Company has international and local assurances that the investments that will be paid for exploration will not be in vain as a result of a possible war. .
Indeed, the Lebanese arena did not witness security tensions that harmed exploration investment. Lebanon, like Israel, wants to benefit from gas, and therefore it quickly decided on the location of the maritime border line and gave up a large area, considering that this was the best possible in light of the Israeli insistence on not accepting Line No. 29. In parallel, the official Lebanese position was reassuring regarding Hezbollah, which He owns the decisions of war and peace on behalf of the state. The party blessed the demarcation and considered it a victory and achievement, and recognized Line 23 as the maritime border of Lebanon. Thus, demarcating the border is a key to ensuring maximum security in the south, and a gateway for Total to begin the gas exploration process.
But the surprise of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, which ignited the borders of the Gaza Strip, shifted the battle to the Israeli settlements, and opened the possibilities for threatening any part of the Israeli entity, changed the possibilities. The arrival of the sparks of that flood to Shebaa Farms, the villages of the Bint Jbeil district, and some of the villages of the Tire district in southern Lebanon raised questions about the reality of the establishment of security in the south and its impact on Israeli investments in the Karish field, which is close to the Qana field.
As the Al-Aqsa Flood operation continues and all possibilities remain open, whether inside Palestine or with Lebanon, work in the Karish and Qana fields remains cautious.
Continuous monitoring of Qana field
The possibility of transferring the war to Lebanon is not a joke, although it is unlikely until now. Because Lebanon now has gas exploration operations that it fears, the Ministry of Energy had to monitor the impact of the Al-Aqsa flood operation and its extension to Lebanon.
To ensure that it remains fully and quickly informed, “the ministry sent a representative to the platform in the Qana field to accompany the drilling process,” according to what Energy Minister Walid Fayyad confirmed in an interview with Al-Modon.
Work in the field “is continuing until further notice,” Fayyad says, and he is reassured that “there is no decision to suspend the exploration process in the new site to which Total has moved,” after it was not possible to continue drilling in the first site. Fayyad pointed out that Total did not inform Lebanon of any decision to stop the drilling process, as military actions are still far from the border. As for Fayyad, “Nothing threatens exploration, but the data may change, so we monitor the situation hour by hour and day by day.”
Although Israel took the initiative to suspend work in the Tamar field, and informed the American company Chevron, which is exploring there, of the suspension of work, the distance between the Tamar and Qana fields postpones a similar decision from the Lebanese side, because the events are still far from the border. Until any developments occur, Fayyad draws attention to the fact that “Total and the Ministry of Energy are monitoring the work in the Karish field, which is close to the Qana field, and the drilling platform there can be observed with the naked eye, and if Israel takes a decision to stop drilling in Karish, we may take a decision to stop drilling in Qana.” “Then the threat becomes serious.”
The threats that may affect the drilling process in the Qana field, although they do not directly affect the Lebanese economy due to the non-starting of exploration, extraction, pumping and exporting, nevertheless they have a moral impact. Lebanon is awaiting positive signs from the Qana field after Total announced that the well drilled in Block 4 does not contain commercial quantities. Also, the first drilling site in Block 9 reached a dead end that required changing the site. That is, the signs of exploiting gas wealth are still far away. At the same time, Lebanon does not pay any sum of money for exploratory drilling. In contrast, Israel has something to fear, as it entered the export phase from the Karish field last February, after the start of the gas pumping process on October 9, 2022.
2023-10-10 12:17:39
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