The former head of SSI creates an organization to protect native business, announced how the introduction of the euro will affect our country
Sofia, Bulgaria10 Oct. 2023, 10:20 22896 read 10 comments
The war in Israel has shuffled the cards of world leaders. How will the fierce fighting in the Middle East affect Bulgaria and other countries? On these and other hot topics, the BLITZ agency sought out the economic and political analyst Kuzman Iliev.
This is how the expert answered the questions of our media, directly concerning security, the economy and the future of Bulgaria.
– Mr. Iliev, how will the war in Israel affect the world order?
– Look, Europe must have a lot on its mind in this situation. Social peace and the lives of hundreds of Europeans are simply at stake. Over the years, the policy of free migration has created literal enclaves of compact migrant Islamic communities.
This was a purposeful policy especially of the liberal formations in the EU, and the idea was purely selfish – electoral power.
The newly admitted “refugees” – in their vast majority economic immigrants – should have been grateful and voted for the right politicians who welcomed them with open arms.
And this can be seen very clearly – these communities preferentially vote for liberal and left-wing coalitions. At the same time, objectively we have to admit – the West has not moderated its interventions in West Asia (or the Near and Middle East) – it depends on how we look at it.
Lebanon, taking sides in the Iran-Iraq war in the mid-1980s, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, the sanctions against Iran… The West has messed up the game there and has staunch ideological enemies with an unadulterated hatred for Western civilization – unfortunately not for politicians , tangled the threads.
These attacks by Hamas will provoke a crushing response from Israel, and this will increase the devoted avengers on the Arab side. A vicious and hellish circle!
In the region, the chaos and humanitarian tragedy are indeed biblical, but because of the immigrant tsunami, the social and financial upheaval from it, as well as terrorism and the cultural denial of its Judeo-Christian roots – it is Europe that is specifically self-destructing in real time.
And it is the Old Continent that pays an unbearable price, which threatens its demographic and cultural-economic existence. And the culture war and tensions are heating up more and more – as we saw in Paris just a few months ago.
The point is that we are in World War III: economic and energy so far – sanctions, central bank asset freezes, commodity price ceilings, blown up gas pipelines.
To them we can add local conflicts, which, however, are not isolated – they are part of the overall confrontation and transformation of geopolitical and geoeconomic layers. Which makes them even more dangerous.
These are very dangerous knots of tension between the emerging blocs of East and West that we must watch with keen attention: Palestine and Lebanon (Hamas and Hezbollah) against Israel; Iran vs. US/Israel; Armenia vs. Azerbaijan; Kosovo vs. Serbia; Russia vs. Ukraine; Taiwan and the US vs. China; Mexico vs. the United States. The world is like a powder keg, and unfortunately common sense doesn’t seem to be making its way, at least for now.
– What is your opinion about the terrorist organization “Hamas”?
– Now what is about to happen is to blame Iran – the great enemy of Israel. But also in Syria, the Sunni Hamas, for example, was against the interests of Shiite Iran and Assad. After Assad’s Syria did not fall with the help of Iran and Russia, for Tel Aviv the problem with the Persians (Iranians) became almost a matter of life and death.
The point is that Tehran has gained a lot of points recently – it has warmed relations with Turkey and Qatar, it already has a warm line of communication even with the Sunni center and arch-enemy – Saudi Arabia.
– And Iran is part of BRICS, that is, from another geopolitical orbit…
– They are already together in BRICS, where the emirates are also. Do not forget that behind Iran, in addition to Russia – and even more importantly – is China, whose economy “eats” the oil and gas of Persians and Saudis like hot bread.
And the de-dollarization of the Gulf is something that irritates Washington. To put it mildly. The clash also has a purely logistical aspect – the Northern Sea Route and the North-South transport corridor isolate the Sueksia Canal and shorten the journey between the BRICS participants by half a month, which also cannot please the Western bloc.
Iran is a powerful player – neither is Iraq, nor is it the Yugoslavia of the late ’90s. The dominoes could topple very quickly if, God forbid, there is a collision along these lines…
Rather, Sunni centers of power such as Turkey and Qatar stand behind Hamas. If anyone is close to Iran, it is Lebanon’s Hezbollah, who are also creating tension on Israel’s northern border.
The Palestinian issue is unifying for the Arabs, and – if ever hypocritically – they treat it as a litmus test for toughness against the West. At the core, of course, there is a lot of politics, oil, money and weapons, and innocent people on both sides are suffering.
– Oil prices rose by more than 4% after the Hamas attack on Israel. Are you expecting even more spectacular changes?
– Declaring the death of fossil fuels such as oil, gas and coal is a rather hasty move. If we don’t want to have only 5 electric cars per block, make an appointment for them and be able to travel only to short destinations – these dangerous antics should not be allowed.
And that prices will inevitably jump relative to if there was no war – less production, more difficult transport and logistics, uncertainty for the industry in Europe. She didn’t care much about the war in Ukraine – now this too…
Oil futures jumped 40 percent from mid-June to late September, approaching $100 a barrel.
The production cut by OPEC plus, the record bottom of the reserves, the sanctions against the Russian oil – all this affects the supply of fuels negatively, and that is why we see the growth on the columns – especially diesel, which is more easily extracted from the Russian type of oil.
Of course, due to high interest rates and the slowdown in growth in Europe, we may also see a more permanent easing in prices, which should not reassure us too much if it is not accompanied by real income growth. And this, with the radical green experiments of Brussels, appears to be a mirage for now.
– Should Bulgaria be afraid of this military conflict?
– Bulgaria is close. The Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea are important maritime geo-economic units, which are connected to the Straits – and this concerns us both in terms of alternative fuel supplies – after all, we are giving up Russian oil for 5-6 days and going through the Bosphorus every three weeks.
International prices will also rise, immigration – inevitably. Do not forget that we are on the bridge to Asia and these processes are happening literally in the backyard of our region.
Of course, once it is known that Hamas uses weapons from Ukraine, a problem may arise and that part of it has a Bulgarian “label”.
It won’t be the first time – weapons and money don’t smell and go where there is the greatest need or desire for them. Migration waves are still not few, but the situation may worsen.
– The introduction of the euro in our country is delayed, but it is inevitable to happen. How will this affect our economy? Will we have the problems of Croatia, for example?
– It is an illusion to think that the euro will make us rich. You are rich if you work a lot, have little bureaucracy – that is, more economic freedom – you save and invest accordingly. And you don’t have to be big – Ireland, Andorra, Switzerland, examples with a shovel to dig them up for the small and rich.
But smart. We are on a board towards the euro, so for us the risk of this because of a lot of debt or systemic problems of disconnecting our board and being left empty-handed is critical.
Our inflation has always been higher than that of the Eurozone because the center always exploits the periphery, so the problems will neither go away if we go in, nor have we tied our pants in the board now.
Right now we choose the lesser evil. In the long term, a gold leva would be a good guarantor against political robbery of the purchasing power of our money. Of course this sounds like science fiction for now, but why not have it on the table…
– What do the EU’s ideas for different speeds and reforming institutions mean for Bulgaria?
– It means that if we do not agree that the EU, as a peace organization, is busy filling the pockets of the military-industrial complex – we will go into the ninth deaf. It also means that if we don’t sing in chorus against the “dictator” Orbán – we will also be kicked. And Orban simply has a position to protect the real Europe – my opinion.
The very idea of eliminating consensus in decision-making on critical policies such as taxes, foreign policy, greenism and migration in favor of a qualified majority – this is pure totalitarianism.
And the nonsense that destroyed our transport sector with the “Macron Package” will be a daily occurrence that we will not like. No way.
– BSP leader Cornelia Ninova announced that the rulers are killing the Bulgarian energy industry. What is your opinion?
– Mrs. Ninova, if my memory serves me correctly, was part of the previous cabinet. This is our problem – our political amnesia and the lack of strategic sovereignty, which in the energy sector is disastrous.
I have been saying for several years that we are on the way to closing 50 percent of our electricity balance (coal plants and mines) and that this threatens our energy security.
Alas, a little spitting into the wind is such an exercise. We had to build the 7th block as well, even the Belene NPP – let it be with French technology, for example. A growing economy needs more and more energy – the food for the machines. Especially if 2035 there will be no gasoline and diesel cars – by order of Brussels!
But yes, the situation is serious and in 2025, with no state aid, with these insanely expensive carbon quotas, our pipelines are closed. Then the danger concerns the electricity system of the country. This drama is being resolved now – in 2 years it will be too late.
– Against the background of the economic situation – will interest rates on loans increase?
– For companies, they have already gone up. In the US, mortgage credit with record interest rates – at 7.5 percent, a record since 2000. Do we really think this will pass us by? Impossible. People need to be ready – with buffers, clearing unnecessary spending, reducing the debt burden.
Banks will have to raise interest rates, because if until now savings were abundant and we were expanding, now our economy is slowing down along with the European economy, and interest rates on deposits and loans will rise in search of liquidity.
Of course, it’s hell for businesses, households and governments that took on debt under favorable conditions. But every crisis – however severe – is a form of cleansing.
The point is to learn the lessons. It is important not to put an additional burden on the financial system – with changes in the law on corporate income taxation, it is planned not to allow banks to use provisions and write-downs for tax purposes.
This is dangerous because these buffers keep banks stable and savers’ money, thus pushing them to invest only in government debt. Then do economics and business. No way…
– Until recently, you were the chairman of the board of the Union for Economic Initiative. What are you currently developing?
– I continue to perform analytical and consulting activities. The experience in the Union was useful – I saw in practice how, in addition to the education of our nation, we need the protection of small and medium-sized businesses from attacks on the economic freedom of businesses and citizens.
With my organization “Bulgaria can do it alone” – we will do exactly that: legal and economic protection of those who create the goods that politicians and swindlers so frivolously spend.
Interview of Yavor Belchev, BLITZ
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2023-10-10 07:19:55
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