In the US financial market on the 9th, stock prices continued to rise. Comments from multiple US financial officials have strengthened expectations that further interest rate hikes will be postponed this year. Crude oil futures prices soared as fears of an escalation of fighting grew following a surprise attack on Israel by the Islamic group Hamas, which effectively controls the Palestinian autonomous region of Gaza.
Stock closing price change from previous business day S&P 500 stock index 4335.6627.160.63% Dow Jones Industrial Average 33604.65197.070.59% Nasdaq Composite Index 13484.2452.900.39%
The S&P 500 stock index made up for the decline. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman J.D. Jefferson said the rise in U.S. Treasury yields could further constrain the economy, and that the financial authorities should “determine the extent of additional policy tightening that may be necessary.” “We are in a position to proceed with caution.” Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President John Logan said the recent spike in long-term U.S. bond yields could reduce the need for the Fed to raise interest rates further.
Vice Chairman Jefferson notes the impact of rising yields – it is possible to proceed with caution (1)
Dallas Fed President says rising U.S. long-term bond yields reduce the need for interest rate hikes (2)
“The scenario has changed,” said Andrew Brenner of NatAlliance Securities. “The probability of further monetary tightening has fallen dramatically since this weekend,” he said.
As of last weekend, the market’s odds of further interest rate hikes this year had increased after the unexpected sharp rise in U.S. payrolls in September.
Energy stocks led the rise in the S&P 500 on this day. ExxonMobil and Chevron rose. Defense stocks were also bought, with Northrop Grumman up more than 11%, its biggest gain since March 2020, and Lockheed Martin up 8.9%. Meanwhile, American Airlines Group and Delta Air Lines fell. Israeli companies Teva Pharmaceutical Industries and Check Point Software Technologies fell in U.S. trading.
[Israel]Death toll exceeds 1,100, Iran denies involvement – EU to emergency meeting
Israel-related stocks fall globally, concerns about escalation of fighting – defense stocks rise
Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a report that the fighting in the Middle East comes at a time of ongoing geopolitical concerns. .
“Given this background, we continue to prefer bonds over stocks.” “We believe that bonds have a higher risk reward. We recommend that investors consider purchasing high-quality 5-10 year bonds. We expect further slowdown in inflation and slowing global economic growth.”
us debt
U.S. Treasury bond trading is closed on Columbus Day. Trading will resume on the 10th. U.S. Treasury futures rose.
foreign exchange
The dollar has fallen. The move was weighed down by two U.S. financial officials suggesting a cautious policy approach given the recent rise in long-term U.S. bond yields. The dollar was rising in the morning amid thin trading due to the holiday. On this day, the Norwegian krone rose significantly among the 10 major currencies, driven by high crude oil prices.
The yen is rising. Supported by the safety-escape movement, the currency at one point rose 0.6% against the dollar to 148.44 yen.
Rate of change from previous trading day Bloomberg Dollar Index 1268.78-1.88-0.15% USD/JPY ¥148.53-¥0.79-0.53% EUR/USD $1.0566-$0.0020-0.19% 16:49 ET
crude
New York crude oil futures prices continue to rise significantly. After Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel, there was a renewed awareness of the instability in the Middle East.
Although Israel’s role in global oil supplies is limited, a major conflict with Hamas threatens to involve the United States and Iran. Iran has been increasing its crude oil supply, helping to ease the tight supply-demand balance. However, if the U.S. imposes additional sanctions on Iran, which is believed to be supporting Hamas, in response to this incident, oil exports from Iran could be affected.
Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth, said, “Oil prices have tended to overreact recently to geopolitical events, and price increases have been short-lived.” may be an exception.” She noted that oil prices are particularly sensitive to potential supply disruptions.
If a situation were to develop into retaliation against Iran, it could threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil supply artery.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for November on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose $3.59 (4.3%) from the previous business day to $86.38 per barrel. Brent December contract rose $3.57, or 4.2%, to close at $88.15.
Money
The New York gold market continues to rise. Spot prices rose sharply for the first time since July. It attracted escape funds as tensions escalated due to fighting between Israel and Hamas.
Ole Hansen, head of product strategy at Saxo Bank, said the U.S. Federal Reserve may not continue to raise interest rates due to heightened uncertainty in the wake of tensions in the Middle East. He said there could be additional demand for gold “as markets focus on the possibility of rate cuts rather than rate hikes.”
As of 3:17 p.m. New York time, the spot price was $1,860.73 per ounce, up 1.5% from the previous business day. Gold futures for December on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) rose $19.10, or 1%, to close at $1,864.30.
Original title:Stocks Shrug Off Losses After Fedspeak; Oil Climbs: Markets Wrap(excerpt)
Dollar Falls Amid Fed Policy Comments, Yen Rises: Inside G-10（抜粋）
Oil Surges as Israel Conflict Reignites Middle East Volatility(excerpt)
Oil Surges as Israel Conflict Reignites Middle East Volatility(excerpt)
Gold Gains as Attack on Israel Bolsters Metal’s Haven Status(excerpt)
2023-10-09 20:55:00
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