Hundreds of thousands of Armenians fled Nagorno-Karabakh in the face of the advance of the Azerbaijani army, during a blitzkrieg and in the face of the silence of the international community. Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna is due to visit the region, but it is already too late.
Catherine Colonna, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, will travel to Armenia this Tuesday to support this country and condemn Azerbaijan. But this trip comes too late for the Karabakh enclave. Too late because Azerbaijan won and managed to drive away almost the entire Armenian population who lived in this small territory of Karabakh.
Azerbaijan launched a lightning offensive 15 days ago. The Armenians had the choice between the suitcase and the coffin, departure or death, and they chose exile. We saw these impressive images of huge lines of cars with these families who left everything behind: their lives, their homes, their jobs, their fields and the cemeteries where their ancestors are buried. This is what we call an ethnic cleansing operation.
What to expect from Catherine Colonna’s visit?
If Catherine Colonna’s visit comes too late for Karabakh, France hopes to discourage Azerbaijan from launching other offensives. On television, eight days ago, Emmanuel Macron had already warned Azerbaijan against any offensive against Armenian territory.
The fear is that Baku’s troops will try to take control of the southernmost region of Armenia. This would ensure territorial continuity between Azerbaijan and Turkey. These two countries speak the same language, they say that they are two countries but one nation. And it is an old dream of the Turks to be able to go without obstacle from the Mediterranean to the Caspian Sea. Like in the time of the Ottoman Empire.
Building on their success in Karabakh, and seeing that neither Europe nor the Russians have reacted, Azerbaijan could launch an offensive in this region of Syunik, in the extreme south of Armenia.
Tuesday in Yerevan, Catherine Colonna is expected to announce the opening of a consular office in this region. Not sure that the mere presence of a French consul is enough to discourage Azerbaijan, but it is still a strong and quite courageous diplomatic gesture. And France would like to receive a little more support from Europeans.
Why have Europeans reacted so little so far?
Several reasons explain the slow reaction of Europeans: the first is that they did not have time. The war between Azerbaijan and Armenia lasted 48 hours. The Armenian separatists, who have controlled Nagorno-Karabakh since the fall of the USSR, very quickly lost the battle and agreed to lay down their arms. This left no time for anyone, neither Europe nor others, to attempt to negotiate or threaten Azerbaijan.
The other, less honorable reason is that Europe needs Azerbaijan for its gas and oil. The president of the European Commission went to Baku last July to sign important agreements. Azerbaijan will deliver around 20% of its gas needs to Europe until 2027. Enough to slow down the Europeans in the event of economic sanctions against Azerbaijan…
Azerbaijan, a dictatorship
Azerbaijan is, however, an unfriendly dictatorship with a lack of press freedom, a justice system under its orders, and imprisoned opponents. The country has been ruled for almost 60 years by the Aliyev family. Father Heydar was a KGB general who became the country’s boss in the 1960s when Azerbaijan was a republic of the Soviet Union. Then he was president after independence in 1993, before giving way to his son Ilham who has ruled the country with an iron fist for 20 years. And in the next presidential election, Ilham intends to step aside for the benefit of his wife.
Azerbaijan is about family, oil and gas. On the other hand, the small Armenian democracy does not carry much weight.
2023-10-02 22:03:36
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