Ukraine War: Current status of ground war and prediction of future developments
What kind of strategy is the Ukrainian military considering after this? (Photo: NATO anti-tank training, September 7th in Latvia, from the US Army website)
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1.Ukrainian ground forces break through and expand
Ukrainian and Russian forces are fighting with their main forces concentrated in the western Zaporizhzhya region. The battle of Tennozan seems to determine the outcome of the war depending on the outcome here.
In the western part of Zaporizhzhya Oblast in southern Ukraine, the Ukrainian ground forces (the name ground forces is used because the naval infantry is added to the ground forces) form a breakthrough towards the objective line from Robotine to Tokmak (Olihiv offensive axis). It is expanding and moving south.
Meanwhile, the Russian ground forces are desperately trying to stop the Ukrainian army from moving south, and the two armies are engaged in a deadly battle.
In the battle here, the Ukrainian army’s line of communication is to the rear, while the Russian army’s line of communication is mainly to the east, due to the Sea of Azov to the south.
Therefore, the Russian forces defending Zaporizhzhia Oblast are under threat of being cut off from their rear lines of communication from the east if they are defeated here.
At the Orihiv offensive axis in western Zaporizhzhya Oblast, the leading edges of the fighting forces of both armies collide.
The area occupied by Russian forces is approximately 110 kilometers wide from north to south, but defensive positions are concentrated in the northern part of the area, about 30 kilometers away.
During this period of approximately 30 kilometers, the Russian army established forward positions, first, second, and third defensive positions, and in some areas, a line of positions between the second and third positions.
In addition, defense is being carried out using urban areas.
Figure 1: The advance range of the Ukrainian army in the Orihiv offensive axis, the Russian army defense line and the distance to it
The blue area is the area recaptured by the Ukrainian army, and the orange area is the area occupied by the Russian army. Source: US Institute of War Research Report (September 26, 2023) Written by the author on the map (same below)
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(If the diagram does not display correctly, please read on the original site)
Ukrainian forces have so far destroyed forward positions and first lines of defense. In front of Belbove, they have broken through the second line of defense and are advancing.
The Russian military has focused most of its efforts on combating these defensive lines. The Ukrainian army has also had a difficult time, but has been able to advance about 10 to 12 kilometers deep.
In front of Belbove are the 2.5 and 3rd defense lines, which are emergency positions. Also, it’s a battle of more than 10 kilometers. The strength of the Russian military is dwindling, with only two brigades originally deployed.
In front of Robotine, the second and third defense lines still remain. Therefore, the tough battle continues.
Once these defensive lines are breached, positions have been built to the south to protect cities such as Tokmok, but no positions have been established that would be able to stop the Ukrainian army outside of major cities.
For this reason, when the third line of defense is breached, the Russian army has no choice but to construct emergency positions or attack with mobile strikes in order to stop the advance of the Ukrainian army.
We will divide the ground battle on the Southern Front into the battle up to the 3rd line of defense and the subsequent battle up to the Yazov Sea, and consider future battle predictions.
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2023-10-02 21:00:00
