Zelenskyj was a favorite on the bookmakers’ lists last year as well. Then the award went to the Ukrainian Center for Civil Rights (CCL), the Russian Memorial and the Belarusian Ales Byaljatski in Viasna.
This year, Zelenskyj tops several of the bookmakers’ lists ahead of people such as Aleksey Navalny, opposition leader Svyatlana Tsikhanowskaja in Belarus and international organizations such as the ICJ and ICC.
The Uyghur leader Ilham Tohti is also highlighted in the odds lists, while more curious features are Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Climate activist Greta Thunberg is also on the lists.
Doubt
– I find it completely unlikely that Zelenskyj can win the Nobel Peace Prize, says Erling Borgen of Norway’s Peace Council to NTB.
– Zelenskyj is leading a fair resistance fight against a Russian invasion, but I don’t think the committee will give the peace prize to a head of state who is at war, says director Henrik Urdal in Prio.
SKEPTICAL: Journalist and director Erling Borgen does not think Zelenskyj will receive the Nobel Peace Prize. Photo: Jon Olav Nesvold / NTB Show more
Borgen emphasizes that he supports Ukraine’s defense struggle against what he refers to as Putin’s vile war. Nevertheless, he believes it is against Nobel’s will to give the peace prize to a party in an active war.
– I see that Zelenskyj is at the top of the lists. I cannot imagine that the Nobel Committee will choose the leader of a warring party as this year’s Nobel Prize winner, says Borgen.
Urdal agrees. He believes the betting companies are primarily concerned with having names that people know and want to bet on.
For the past two years, the peace prize has gone to actors who challenge Vladimir Putin. First to journalist Dmitrij Muratov in 2021, then to the three-leaf clover from Ukraine, Belarus and Russia last year.
– It is a much more open field this year, no single case stands out, says Urdal.
“Want to kill you”
Four favorites from Borgen
Borgen believes that this year’s peace prize may go to a completely different actor. He singles out four favourites:
– She is a prominent human rights defender in Iran. For a number of years, she has fought for women’s rights in Iran. She has been sentenced to 12 different prison sentences totaling 30 years, says Borgen.
CAN RUN AWAY WITH A PRIZE: Julian Assange. Photo: Justin Tallis / AFP / NTB Show more
Julian Assange, Australia.
– By publishing documents on war crimes by the US and its allies, Julian Assange has contributed to a global public debate on warfare, with particular emphasis on the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Thanks to the work of Assange and Wikileaks, the public has become aware of the brutal realities of war, says Borgen.
The European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg.
– Many international lawyers believe that the court is the most effective and important human rights court in the world. All European countries support the court’s work, but Russia is no longer on the court after the Council of Europe excluded the country because of the Ukraine war, says Borgen.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had the audience erupt in laughter during the NATO summit in Vilnius on 12 July. Video: AP. view more
Ilham Tohti, imprisoned Uighur leader, China.
– Tohti is an economics professor and belongs to China’s Muslim minority, the Uighurs. He is imprisoned in China on a life sentence. He is the most important voice of the Uyghurs, not only for criticizing China, but also for calling for dialogue. In September 2014, Ilham was sentenced to life in prison for “separatism”, a charge the Chinese authorities often use against Uighurs who speak out about human rights violations, says Borgen.
Activists top Urdal’s list
Prio, on the other hand, has a list of top 5 candidates, but has the most faith in a shared prize.
Human rights activists Narges Mohammadi and Mahbouba Seraj, from Iran and Afghanistan, are at the top.
– They represent one of the most important issues. This year marks 75 years since the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. There is an opportunity to point this out. Both Iran and Afghanistan are countries and areas where women’s rights are put under severe pressure, says Urdal.
The UN special rapporteur for indigenous rights Victoria Tauli-Corpuz and Juan Carlos Jintiach, who coordinates international cooperation with COICA, an association of all the national indigenous organizations in the Amazon, are in second place.
– These are also human rights activists and a topic we believe would have been good if the committee focused on. It is both indigenous rights and the non-violent struggle for indigenous rights, but also specifically for the efforts these two have made for the cause. It will also be able to point to what is one of the great themes of our time, the fight for the environment, and put it into a peace perspective, says Urdal.
Now it’s over
In third place follows the UN’s highest court, the International Court of Justice in The Hague.
– We are now in a situation where more and more of these multilateral arenas are coming under pressure. There is increased polarization internationally. We feel that it is important to point out that we have meeting places where conflicts can be resolved in a peaceful way, says Urdal.
In fourth place follows Myanmar’s ambassador to the UN, Kyaw Moe Tun, and Myanmar’s National Unity Consultative Council, while the Human Rights Data Analysis Group (HRDAG) is in fifth place.
Like controversial prices
Both Assange and Tohti will be peace prize winners that are linked to controversy. Assange because of the US legal process against him, Tohti because of China’s policy. Likewise, an award to Mohammadi and Seraj could be controversial in Iran and Afghanistan.
– I like controversial awards that can challenge power and the abusers of power. I think that is absolutely brilliant and sometimes the Nobel Committee has succeeded in doing so, says Borgen.
Urdal believes this year’s committee will look good in the world.
– When there have been two awards that have focused on Ukraine and Russia, it probably means that I think the committee should and will try to look beyond Europe this time around. It is important that this is an award that recognizes important contributions made outside Europe, says Urdal.
2023-10-01 08:33:29
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