Lorenzo Pallavicini –
A specter is haunting the European buildings and can once again put a spoke in the wheels of those who would like all EU member states to share the burdens of the phenomenon of immigration from non-European countries. It is the referendum that will be held in Poland, in conjunction with the legislative elections in October, a consultation desired by the Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki, which aims to strengthen the consensus around his government, which has had to face more than anyone else in the EU consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
In fact, Poland is the country that has hosted the most Ukrainian refugees since the beginning of the conflict, as many as 1.6 million for almost 35% of the overall total, an important effort also in economic terms which has generated some discontent in Polish society, especially for the case linked to agriculture and the export of Ukrainian cereals, with the Warsaw government leading a tough battle together with Hungary against Kiev, which also intends to bring the issue to the WTO.
It is no coincidence that the tones between Warsaw and Kiev have become very harsh in recent times, precisely to avoid, on the part of the government in office, giving vent to a certain opposition in Poland, especially coming from the far right and the anti-Ukrainian party Confederation, who support the fear of the “Ukrainization of Polish society” and the excessive economic effort to support the Zelensky government in the war against the Russians.
The battle against the redistribution of migrants is, therefore, an old warhorse of Warsaw that needs to be dusted off to be one of the keys to winning the elections.
The Poles, together with other countries such as Hungary, have for years prevented any possible real agreement between member states to reform the Dublin Treaty on the right to asylum in Europe, which today heavily penalizes first arrival countries such as Italy , and the feared redistribution of migrants in all member states.
The referendum as it is posed appears very clear in the question and concerns precisely the type of immigration that is most problematic for the European Union, i.e. that coming from sub-Saharan countries and the Middle East. It is very likely that the majority of Poles will confirm their refusal to accept non-EU immigration, thus giving a strong and popular mandate to the government in office which, despite the difficulties, has the advantage that on this topic it finds the majority of consensus in the inside Polish society.
The migration issue will be one of the key topics of the electoral campaign for the European elections and the popular consultation promoted by Poland could find other sides within the EU, especially in the eastern states, which are also grappling with the difficulties resulting from the implications of the conflict Russian Ukrainian in their lands.
The von der Leyen mandate was not effective both in combating human trafficking and in obtaining from sub-Saharan and Maghreb countries the necessary agreements for the repatriation of irregulars and for patrolling the Mediterranean, which is left to the initiative of individual states Europeans like Italy which, with the 2017 agreement wanted by the then Interior Minister Minniti, financed the Libyan coast guard with resources and training, not without criticism from European leaders for the difficult conditions of the Libyan collection camps.
This referendum posed a question not only to the Poles but also to the European citizens, who are very sensitive to the difficulties that the migratory challenge poses, especially with an unfavorable economic situation, conditioned by the harsh monetary policies of the ECB on interest rates which have led to the increase in the difficulty of accessing credit and mortgages and the costs of various raw materials which are affected by the new structures created since the start of the war in Ukraine.
In Western Europe and by EU leaders, the Polish government is viewed with suspicion precisely because of the political thought it has placed on migration but it is clear that Warsaw has a taste for the challenge and this referendum is a basic point with which to complete a plan that sees the axis of the European Commission shift towards a more conservative and nationalist orientation, less linked to the problem of reception or inclusion and more pragmatic and rigid on the right to asylum and emigration.
It is no coincidence that the French and German governments in office, very anti-sovereign, have taken a clear line towards Italy and the redistribution of migrants, precisely for electoral reasons and to prevent local anti-immigration parties from taking advantage of it and reaching to obtain many seats in the European elections, a threat also for the current Chancellor Scholz, with polls that would give the German right-wing AfD party almost 20% of the vote.
Poland’s challenge will be supported in their respective countries by some national forces such as the Front National in France or the AfD in Germany which, if they obtain a strong result, could prove decisive in moving the European axis towards the right, given the difficulties that are having on the continent, apart from the Iberian peninsula, the majority of European socialist forces, starting from the Italian Democratic Party, whose vision on immigration is very different from the line indicated by the Polish government in office.
