Hossein-Amir Abdollahian, Iran’s foreign minister, was unable to travel to Washington to visit the Iranian interests section at the Pakistani embassy while he was in the United States to attend the Assembly General of the United Nations. The refusal of the American authorities to allow him access to the federal capital leaves a mixed impression. The State Department was certainly under no obligation to agree to this, but Iran does not seem to have taken any offense either.
Joe Biden did not want to be accused of complacency by an American Jewish electorate that he is cultivating with a view to the presidential elections and by a Congress that is very particular about “maximum pressure” with regard to Iran.
In Tehran, some also “stepped on the brake” both in the Supreme National Security Council, led by a Revolutionary Guard reluctant to accommodate, as well as in the Office of the Supreme Guide and in the Parliament controlled by the alliance. close to the Revolutionary Guards and ultra conservatives from the Paydari faction.
As a result, the Minister of Foreign Affairs did not make disproportionate efforts to obtain a green light from the American administration. This failure is also that of Iranian President Raïssi who did not demonstrate skillful diplomacy both at the United Nations General Assembly and at the meeting “behind the curtains” organized by the think tank Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in New York.
On the other hand, as planned, Ebrahim Raïssi met a certain number of heads of state and governments on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. And his delegation held discreet and useful discussions with diplomats, officials and experts from various countries. A note of optimism confirms this interest: the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, has just authorized the Iranian nuclear negotiator, Ali Baqeri-Kani, to begin conversations in Oman with Brett McGurk, in charge of the Middle East file at the House -White.
This is a turning point compared to the usual “dogma”: “no direct contact” with Washington. According to Amwaj media analysts, this turnaround is due to the latest success in the negotiations to free American hostages. This encouraged Ali Khamenei to pursue the path of “baby steps” of (very) gradual de-escalation, an approach that also suits Joe Biden. The resumption of direct negotiations follows discreet conversations between emissaries of the two parties.
Furthermore, in addition to informal conversations between experts and well-connected former diplomats, two series of discussions took place in Oslo between diplomats from the E3 (the England-France-Germany trio) and Ali Baqeri-Kani, to “exchange ideas” and then during a final session in New York. They have yet achieved nothing, with Tehran refusing the European request to release the hostages and to stop delivering weapons to Russia.
Washington and Tehran could pursue “small-step diplomacy”. However, it still seems illusory to envisage (at least on the visible horizon) a return to the Vienna nuclear agreement (JCPOA) despite Iranian declarations calling for the activation of a prior compromise, outlined in 2022.
Hopes are limited as the grievances between European and Iranian negotiators tend to sterilize their dialogue. For example, President Raïssi denounced at the UN “countries which shelter terrorist groups” (alluding to the People’s Mojahedin, aka the National Council of Iranian Resistance, who are demonstrating in France) and to the ban on the veil in school…
Despite the diplomatic efforts of the E3, Tehran does not consider them to be decisive interlocutors and now favors dialogue with those who have the capacity to make real impactful decisions, in this case the United States. The Iranian reversal reflects a certain urgency dictated by the approach of the American elections: the regime wants to quickly obtain limited relief from sanctions in order to benefit from some financial resources which it urgently needs.
These developments take place in a very volatile context. On the Israeli side, Benjamin Netanyahu displays growing nervousness in the face of several annoyances: he considers the release of the American hostages, and especially the unfreezing of the six billion dollars blocked in South Korea, as a dangerous gift to Tehran.
In addition, the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, concluded on March 10, is a blow to the anti-Iran front. At the same time, Riyadh is demanding concessions from Washington to establish diplomatic relations with the Jewish state. In particular, give pledges to the Palestinians for a viable state (which the ultra-Orthodox bloc in the Knesset refuses). In addition, the Saudi monarchy wants to obtain security guarantees from the United States and the supply of nuclear technology to enrich uranium, officially for civilian but potentially military use. A nuclear arms race could be looming. Mohamed Ben Salman (MBS) refuses to sign “Protocol 123” (aka Gold Standard) which ensures the impossibility of military use, knowing that the United Arab Emirates have signed this commitment.
Israel does not want a neighbor with a bomb. Tel Aviv, under the pretext of blocking Tehran’s nuclear program, could launch strikes on a few symbolic Iranian nuclear sites, but above all target refineries and major infrastructures, the real objective being to get Iran to “capitulate”, or even to a collapse of power. A perilous calculation likely to ignite an already incandescent region.
Washington has recklessly encouraged Tel Aviv’s bellicose posture by providing its tanker planes on three occasions for Israeli exercises simulating strikes on Iran. Worse, Jake Sullivan, Joe Biden’s principal security adviser, recently declared that Washington will not oppose such a unilateral strike if Israel judges the nuclear program to be too advanced.
For its part, Tehran refused to accredit three (European) inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for monitoring visits to Iranian sites. An ominous sign as the director of the Agency, Rafael Grossi, spares no effort to get Iran to resume a constructive dialogue. He has just announced, according to Al Jazeera, that conversations have resumed with the Iranians. However, Ali Baqeri-Kani had recalled that Tehran was in favor of such a dialogue in the name of Iranian interests (which earned it criticism from the regime’s hardliners) but by imposing conditions. The outcome is still uncertain.
Michel Makinsky is Managing Director Ageromys International and IPSE & IEGA associate researcher
2023-09-29 15:27:54
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