An independent panel has concluded that NASA’s Mars sample return mission faces multiple challenges and appears infeasible under current cost and schedule expectations.
On Thursday, NASA released the final report and announced the formation of its own team to review the Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission report. A decision on further actions on this mission is planned to be made by the second quarter of 2024. In the meantime, the space agency has suspended approval of the official cost and schedule of the mission.
The report describes the mission as a “highly constrained campaign” that had “unrealistic budget and schedule expectations from the outset.”
MSR is one of NASA’s most challenging missions. It includes a variety of spacecraft, including an orbital module, a lander, two helicopters and a rocket, which are planned to be sent to the Red Planet by 2028. However, the report says there is “almost zero probability” that the lander and orbiter will be ready for launch in 2028. Experts advise considering 2030 as a more realistic launch date.
NASA faced challenges managing the budget and schedule for the MSR mission. In May, the agency created an independent expert panel to evaluate technical, cost and timing plans before approving the mission design.
Panels such as the one created for MSR help us understand whether we are moving in the right direction to achieve our goals within the established budget.
— Sandra Connelly, NASA Associate Administrator for Science
The official cost of the mission has not yet been announced. In 2020, NASA and the European Space Agency valued the mission at $7 billion, but there are concerns that costs could rise. The new report suggests the full cost of the mission will be between $8 billion and $11 billion.
The mission was allocated $822.3 million in 2023, and NASA requested $949.3 million in 2024. In April, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said the MSR mission would require an additional $250 million in the current fiscal year, and $250 million in 2024. another $250 million.
In its 2024 budget proposal, the Senate Appropriations Committee proposed that NASA provide a one-year financial plan for MSR as part of the $5.3 billion total mission cost outlined in the 2022 Planetary Science Review. If NASA can’t do this, the mission could be cancelled.
MSR is a very complex program with many parallel developments and challenges.
— Orlando Figueroa, Chairman of the Independent Expert Commission
The panel emphasized the importance of MSR as a strategic step in the Mars exploration program, which aims to land humans on the planet. Rock samples collected by the Perseverance rover may contain information about possible life on Mars.
The report calls on NASA to do a better job of communicating the importance of its mission to the public.
MSR’s significance to society, technology, and science makes it one of the most important missions in NASA’s long-term space exploration strategy. This is not always clearly and consistently communicated to the public. A successful MSR campaign will radically change our understanding of the history of Mars, the solar system, and the possibility of life beyond Earth.
