/Pogled.info/ Evaluating the situation in the area of the special military operation, experts – both Russian and Western – are increasingly talking about an upcoming Russian offensive. They argue about the number of reserves and weapons prepared for this.
The other day, the adviser to the US President Sullivan openly stated: the urgent delivery of US long-range ATACMS missiles to the armed forces of Ukraine is directly related to the Russian counteroffensive, which may begin in the coming weeks.
But every time we get a new report from the area of the Northern Military District, we hear again that the enemy continues to bite our defenses persistently but unsuccessfully, and again there is no talk of any advance on our part. And ahead is autumn, muddy roads, which are obviously not favorable for the offensive.
Military intelligence veteran, Hero of Russia Colonel Rustem Klupov told MK about whether we should wait for our offensive this fall and what conditions must be present at the front for this to happen.
“There is no need to rush anyone,” the expert believes.
– Why do we need this rush? In the name of putting on a show?..
– Why? It’s just that in the West they are already openly talking about our counterattack, but we still don’t see it.
– Every counterattack, counterstrike – and everything starts with counterattacks, then a counterstrike – occurs after the enemy troops cross the front line. That is, a counterattack and a counterstrike are carried out in the interest of restoring the situation on the front line.
For example, now the armed forces of Ukraine have captured Rabotino and are wedged into our defense somewhere in other directions. If we initiate a movement to recover our leading edge, this is called counter-attacks and counter-attacks. What if the Ukrainians have not yet passed our front line?
Battles are mainly fought only in the support zone. So where should we conduct our counterattacks and counterstrikes? All normal militaries start calculating from the front line.
– What can be considered leading?
– The so-called “Surovikin line”. Now, when on TV or somewhere in public pages, the Ukrainians show their photos against the background of these same “snake teeth” – anti-tank tetrahedrons that are installed on this line, or against the background of our anti-tank trenches, it will mean that they have approached to our front line. So far, it’s not even close.
– It turns out that we have to wait for their successful offensive and break through the front line of our defense?
In fact, according to the classics, the troops launch a counterattack after the enemy reaches the second line of our defense. Otherwise, if you attack him, as they say, from a neutral zone, you can get a counter fight.
– What is a counter fight?
– Approximately the same thing that happened during the Great Patriotic War near Prokhorovka. The Germans were advancing, we threw our tank units there.
Our T-34 faced their “Tigers” – it turned out to be a counter-battle. The most insane and unpredictable type of battle that can lead to huge losses.
As a boxing fan, I often compare the situation up front to a classic boxing match. Usually there, one boxer adheres to defensive tactics, the other – offensive. But that doesn’t mean the one defending is weaker.
He’s just looking for the moment when he can counterattack. Here it is exactly the same: we must fulfill the conditions for counterattacks, both at the tactical and operational level.
– What if the Ukrainian Armed Forces never manage to reach our second line of defense?
– Then we have to pull them there. Give them a chance to feel that they are strong and still able to attack.
If they sense that they have lost their offensive abilities, they will immediately go on the defensive. They will dig into the ground, regroup the troops, create reserves, bring in artillery, and create all the conditions for us to attack their prepared defenses.
– But what if now the Americans, after the apparent failure of the “counteroffensive” of the Ukrainian armed forces, force the Ukrainians to go on the defensive? Or do you think they will still require the Ukrainian armed forces to attack?
– Sooner or later, the Ukrainian armed forces will definitely go on the defensive. But as soon as they do that, immediately expect our counterattack. And quickly.
It is always done like this: the first day – we saw that the enemy had stopped and would no longer advance. The second day – an artillery strike. Third day – a counter-attack takes place.
Simply put, there are four basic conditions for launching a counterattack. First, the enemy must be stopped after exhausting all of their offensive capabilities.
Second, it must be struck by fire. Third, the enemy has exhausted all his reserves by this time or has no opportunity to transfer these reserves to the front line. And fourth – this already affects us – we must have the necessary forces and means for a counterattack.
– And the enemy is now very afraid of these forces that we are preparing for a counterattack. We constantly wonder how many reserves we have and where are they?
– Yes, because with the troops we are defending, the maximum that can be done is a counterattack. The counterstrike at the operational level must be carried out by fresh forces – operational reserves.
– And when all four of these conditions are met, can we expect our counterattack?
– Yes, its task is to restore the front line along the front line, to return those territories that the Ukrainians “bite off” from us during their “counteroffensive”.
And when we get out of our front line, we will begin our counter-offensive, which will gradually grow into a full-fledged offensive.
– The Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Malyar reports on the attack of our troops on Avdeevka and Marinka. He says the Russians are still actively moving forward there. Can this already be considered the beginning of our offensive?
– If Ukraine had said that we brought our reserves into battle there, and had indicated the number of two or three new brigades that had not previously participated in battles, then yes, this could already be called the beginning of a counteroffensive. But until that happens, we will not bring our reserves into battle.
Now that the offensive was in progress at Kupyansk, Avdeevka and elsewhere, these were counter-attacks of tactical importance when there was a struggle for a dominant position. Fixed issues at the tactical level of our defending troops.
– But we still have to wait for our attack?
– Definitely. The main purpose of defense is to create favorable conditions for conducting offensive operations in the future.
Translation: SM
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