by Chiara Di Cristofaro and Stefania Arcudi
Doubts remain about global growth, with China leading the way. In Milan the banks are doing well with MPS in the spotlight, followed by Cnh Industrial and Moncler. Spread rising, remains above 180 points
5′ read
(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) – After starting with the handbrake on, the European indices they try to take courage and turn positive, on the day the board meeting of the company begins Federal Reserve which will communicate its decision on interest rates on September 20th. We also look at the price data, after the falling numbers for the Eurozone and the OECD forecasts, according to which overall inflation is falling, but core inflation remains persistent in many economies, supported by cost pressures and margins high in some sectors. They are therefore increasing the FTSE MIB of Milan, the CAC 40 of Paris, the DAX 40 of Frankfurt, theIBEX 35 of Madrid, the FT-SE 100 of London andAEX in Amsterdam.
Either way, investors’ attention is all on the trajectory of monetary tightening, with the Fed set to announce its decisions on Wednesday. The market expects a stop to the cycle of increases, which has seen the Fed raise the cost of money in 11 of the last 12 meetings, but the point will be to understand whether or not there will be a new tightening before the end of the year. «The Fed will leave rates unchanged at this week’s meeting. Indeed, inflation data show a progressive decline, while the economy remains resilient; the chances of a soft landing in the economy have increased. The focus will be on the “dot plot”, i.e. on the forecasts relating to rates in the future. The debate will therefore move from the level of rates to the duration of the period in which the Fed will keep them high”, explains Luigi Nardella of Ceresio Investors.
Eurozone inflation falling, in Italy down to 5.5%
In the euro area, the annual inflation rate in August was 5.2% after 5.3% in July. A year earlier it was 9.1%. The flash estimate at the end of August indicated 5.3%. Eurostat announces it. In the EU, the annual inflation rate was 5.9% in August after 6.1% in July (10.1% a year earlier). Excluding energy in the euro area 6.3% after 6.7% in July; also excluding unprocessed foods 6.2% after 6.6%; excluding food energy, tobacco and alcohol 5.3% after 5.5%. In Italy 5.5% after 6.3% in July (9.1% a year earlier), The lowest annual rates were recorded in Denmark (2.3%), Spain and Belgium (both 2.4%) . The highest annual rates were recorded in Hungary (14.2%), the Czech Republic (10.1%) and Slovakia (9.6%). Compared to July, annual inflation decreased in fifteen member states, remained stable in one and increased in eleven. The next flash estimate for the euro area for September will be published on the 29th of this month.
In Milan, eyes on banks, Stellantis looks at US unions
On the Milanese stock market, the banks support the FTSE MIB con Banca Mps which separates the others after rumors about the Government’s desire to maintain a controlling stake in the Sienese bank. Good too Bpm Bank e Banca Pop Er. Little movement Mediobanca after the appointments committee has developed the list of candidates of the board of directors in view of the renewal of the top management, which will be submitted to the board for approval tomorrow, a list that is in the name of operational continuity with regards to top positions, aiming upon confirmation of the CEO Alberto Nagel and president Renato Pagliaro. salt Stellar awaiting news from the United States on the auto sector strike, which seems destined to continue because an agreement appears distant, while it is in the queue Moncler after HSBC’s rating cut. Pharmaceuticals are weak, also in the queue Cnh Industrial.
Spread slightly rising, confirmed above 180 points
Slightly rising trend for the spread between BTp and Bund which is therefore confirmed above 180 points, a threshold reached yesterday for the first time since last June. The yield differential between the benchmark ten-year BTp (Isin IT0005518128) and the German bond of the same duration stands at 181 points, one more than the previous day’s close. The yield of the benchmark ten-year BTp was stable at 4.51%, in line with the previous closing.
Oil rally continues, analysts say Brent is one step closer to $100
Oil prices still rise for the fourth consecutive session, with Brent testing $95 a barrel for the first time since November, with the market pricing in the imbalance between increased demand and reduced supply. The cost of crude oil is at a 10-month high, amidst a drop in supply that continues to weigh on the market. November Brent is now trading at 94.98 dollars (+0.59%) after a top of 95.33, the highest since November 2022, while the WTI with the same maturity is at 91.31 dollars (+0.74%) after a top at 91.7. «A weekly closing of Brent above 95 dollars would open up space for a potential acceleration towards the 100 dollar area», say the MPS analysts. Shale oil production in the United States, underline the ActivTrades analysts, is 9 million barrels per day, the lowest level since May. If we add to this OPEC+ production cuts to support the market, “the risks, at this stage, are for possible further increases that could bring prices back above 100 dollars”. Even for Vontobel, a further rise in oil prices is possible, while the fall is protected not only by OPEC, but also by the US government, which intends to replenish its emergency oil reserves little by little, aiming for a priced around $70, which essentially provides another layer of support at a possible rock bottom price. «Therefore, oil could actually represent a threat to the disinflationary trends we have witnessed in recent times – says Vontobel – considering that it was precisely the energy component that contributed most to disinflation in recent months».
Asia in negative, Tokyo closes at -0.9%
Asian stock markets, however, ended the session in negative territory. Investors focus their attention on central banks’ interest rate decisions as risks of a global recession grow. The Fed’s decision is expected tomorrow, then it will be up to the Bank of England on Thursday and that of Japan on Friday.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange closed a session down by almost one percentage point, which was affected by the performance of technology and electronics stocks, while investors are already focused on the weekly appointments with the central banks, tomorrow in particular with the Federal Reserve and Friday with the Bank of Japan. Friday will also be a day full of indicators on the Japanese economy (inflation and PMI indices). On the monetary policy front, the messages that will arrive from the governor Kazuo Ueda are awaited: in recent weeks the number one of the institute has announced the end of the phase of negative rates even if for the moment the BoJ is maintaining its ultra-accommodative history. Meanwhile, the yen is weak, approaching 148 to the dollar. The Nikkei index ended trading down by 0.87% at 33242.59 points, the Topix rose by 0.08%.
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Stefania Arcudi
Radiocor editor
Chiara Di Cristofaro
Radiocor editor
View on ilsole24ore.com
2023-09-19 09:22:30
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