Ukraine’s counter-offensive has gone slower than many had hoped for, but is slowly but surely moving further and further into Russian-occupied areas.
For more than a year and a half, Russian forces have been working furiously to fortify their defense lines. Miles of trenches, artillery emplacements and minefields were constructed to slow the Ukrainian advance.
For the Ukrainians, the hour of fate has come.
– The test by fire starts now
If their forces do not break through the Russian defensive lines before autumn really announces its arrival, they risk being stuck in the mud, which will make further advance almost impossible.
Several smaller Ukrainian advances have been reported across several parts of the front in recent weeks, but the major breakthrough does not yet appear to have come.
But lately, the Ukrainian forces have made significant progress in the Bakhmut and Zaporizhzhya regions, forcing the Russians to make changes in their defense strategy.
It could create great opportunities for the Ukrainians, according to the renowned think tank Institute of the Study of War (ISW).
TOWN RECOVERED: The photo, released by Ukrainian authorities, is said to show a Ukrainian soldier during the recapture of the village of Andriivka, or the ruins left of it. Photo: 3rd assault brigade / Ukrainian Armed Forces Press service / Handout via REUTERS / NTB Show more
– Made significant progress
Ukrainian forces must have made significant tactical progress on several fronts, according to the think tank.
Among other things, they are said to have carried out several attacks along Russian defense lines around the villages of Robotyne and Verbove.
Ownership of the villages is still disputed, but the Ukrainian activity in the area suggests that the Russians no longer have full control over them, writes the think tank.
On September 15, Ukraine reported that its forces had recaptured the ruins of the village of Andriivka, located 10 kilometers southwest of Bakhmut. Russian authorities dispute claims that the city has fallen into Ukrainian hands.
ADVANCED: Ukrainian forces are slowly but surely advancing. The photo was taken on September 6, 2023, near the front line in Zaporizhzhya. Photo: REUTERS / Stringer TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY / NTB Show more
– Forced to make changes
During the past week, Ukrainian forces have advanced in the western Zaporizhzhya region.
In the past, the Russian command has been reluctant to deploy detachments of elite soldiers to assist in the crucial defense effort in western Zaporizhzhia, but the Ukrainian attacks are now forcing Russia to prioritize the defense of the regions, thus making significant changes in its defense strategy.
– Ukrainian advances in the western part of Zaporizhzhya Oblast have probably forced the Russian command to prioritize the Russian defense there, and redistribute elements of an elite division away from the Russian defense south of Bakhmut, reports ISW in its daily report.
TRENCH LIFE: Both sides have dug extensive trenches around the front. Two soldiers are shown here in a Ukrainian trench near the front line in Zaporizhzhya, September 4, 2023. Photo: REUTERS / Oleksandr Ratushniak / NTB Show more
– Deeply concerned
Among other things, several units of paratroopers from the Russian 83rd Airborne Brigade are to be among the elite units that are now being moved to contribute to the defense of Zaporizhzhya.
The brigade has previously been used to defend the village of Klishchiivka, which is described as critical to the defense of Bakhmut, located around 8 kilometers further north.
The transfer of the 83rd brigade suggests that the Russians are “deeply concerned” about Ukrainian advances in the area, and are now prioritizing the defense of Zaporizhzhya, rather than Bakhmut, writes ISW.
Such troop transfers create opportunities for Ukraine to be able to exploit newly created weaknesses in the Russian defense lines, and increase the chance of a decisive breakthrough, writes the think tank.
2023-09-17 12:17:22
#Russians #deeply #concerned
