China’s Changing Role in Finding a Solution to the Conflict in Ukraine

Master in the art of patience. But very eager – despite all the difficult balancing acts that she must take into account – that we now reach a solution to the conflict in Ukraine. From the beginning of the war to today Chinese has gradually changed its position, rebalanced its tones and actions, while continuing to publicly flaunt its relationship with Mosca, changing trajectory in small steps. The summit of Pike from a month and a half ago. And it filters against the light even now, after hosting a Beijing the envoy of Papathe cardinal Matteo Zuppi.

«A frank discussion» with Li Huithe man of Xi in charge of the dossier, “with an important exchange of views also on prospects for the future”, he said Soups a Tv2000. Very significant conversations given the context: Chinese e Holy See they have no diplomatic relations and there is no shortage of disagreements over the appointments of bishops.

All actors work to mediate a ceasefire leading to negotiations. Diplomatic exercise whose success or failure will be determined by conditions on the ground. However, everyone understands that until the Russian presidential elections in mid-March Putin cannot nor does he want to discuss these issues (despite the usual dance of declarations yesterday when he said that he has “never refused negotiations on theUkraine: if the other party wants them, say so”). WashingtonFor his part, he is pushing for a way out to be found before the presidential elections Usa of November 2024.

Per Beijing having agreed to receive the correspondent of Papa it was important for various reasons: because she always feels flattered if someone searches for her; because it has an interest in projecting an image of a responsible country, a bearer of peace and in search of a negotiated solution, to reduce that fault line between West and East which is dangerously widening. With a struggling economy, Beijing he knows that we need to return to healthier relationships. An attitude in line with the path taken a Pike – the Chinese presence was appreciated by Washington e Bruxelles – where, words of Li, “international consensus on the solution to the crisis” has consolidated. A phrase that must not translate into outright support for the Ukrainian plan, which together with the other participants in the August summit in the Saudi city, the G7 and the “Global South”, Beijing is working to remodulate, but which reveals the interest that the conflict should soon reach a definition.

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Third reason, finally, because a Beijing I don’t mind maintaining contact with the Church, especially on humanitarian issues. The communist leadership bangs on about civilian and food safety. Resolving the issue of Ukrainian wheat, of which the Chinese are major importers, would also give them the opportunity to “spend it” as happened with the countries of the Global South that they court.

The day after tomorrow at Mosca the Chinese Foreign Minister will go Wang Yi to meet his counterpart Sergey Lavrov. A more direct commitment will not emerge publicly: the desire is not to expose oneself like this yet. There Chinese must continue to muddle through because it cannot now radically redefine relations with Mosca (and Putin humiliated on his doorstep would now become a danger), but he knows that he must advocate for a solution to minimize the disadvantages that the conflict brings. The reasoning is this: we have an independent position, we favor all attempts at dialogue, and as soon as possible we will position ourselves in the best possible way.

An approach that fits well with the “peace offensive” desired by Pope francesco. And that didn’t end with the Chinese stage Soups. The cardinal had not yet returned Italia that the Russian Foreign Minister announced that the envoy of Papa «soon he will come again» a Mosca. “We are ready to meet everyone,” he said Lavrov“ready to talk to everyone”.

Invitation accepted by Vatican with a silence that reveals the desire to avoid exploitation. The Ukrainians, already irritated by some of the statements made by the Papathey fear that Mosca use these visits to improve its international image. A date for the new mission of Soups there is not. But, caution aside, the Russian invitation is perceived a Roma as a good sign.

«The Church acts not only on the basis of the conclusions of the analysis of the situation, but also with spiritual courage», explains a Republic the apostolic nuncio in Ukrainemonsignor Visvaldas Kulbokas: it is part of his mission to «hop against all hope» and «work in the fields that human logic deems to be sterile». To advance peace the men of Papa in short, they don’t shy away, even if it were necessary to lose face.

In the first instance the objective is to achieve humanitarian results. All these months Bergoglio and his collaborators forwarded to Mosca several lists of people to be released. Children, military prisoners, but also – as the head of the Greek Catholic Church said Sviatoslav Shevchuk these days a Roma – civil prisoners, among them doctors and priests. Negotiations, glimmers of hope that can open up scenarios of peace.

If at this moment the conditions for real mediation are not there, «the cardinal Soupswhich was a Kiev, Mosca, Washington e Beijingis a potential mediator”, underlines the ambassador of Papa a Kiev. «His presence already represents a channel». Now it’s about not missing this opportunity.

Kim-Putin, China’s concern about a partnership that could increase US pressure by our correspondent Gianluca Modolo 14 September 2023

2023-09-16 14:40:59
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