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The Rise of Oslo Stock Exchange: Historical September Strength and High Oil Prices

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The main index rose 0.2 per cent at the start of Tuesday, and now stands at 1,277 points – not far from the intraday record of 1,291 points.

September has historically often been a weak month on the Oslo Stock Exchange, but so far the main index has risen 1.4 per cent. It comes after a stronger summer than expected.

The high level on the Stock Exchange comes after a period of high oil and gas prices. The price of a barrel of North Sea oil burnt, which is used as a reference for oil trading worldwide, traded at 90.8 dollars in the morning hours – the highest level since November last year.

The most traded shares when trading started were:

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Show all positions Equinor, which falls 0.9 percent DNB Bank, which rises 0.6 percent Aker BP, which falls 0.8 percent Frontline, which falls 0.7 percent

There will be big results

Odin manager Atle Hauge believes that it is heading for a demanding autumn at Oslo Børs.

– This is not a market for stock market tourists, here you have to know what you are doing. There will be big results, says Hauge.

Atle Hauge is an analyst at Odin Forvaltning. (Photo: Hanna Johre) More…

The high interest rates and inflation that have characterized the Norwegian economy in the past year are tightening consumption. Nevertheless, consumption has remained above Hauge’s expectations – and high consumption drives up demand for goods and services. That is why he is particularly interested in consumer behavior this autumn.

– The consumer is the actor who has prolonged the cycle. So going forward it is consumer behavior that will be important and labor market figures. The saved funds run out and the interest rates start to bite. I think we are facing a rather demanding period, says Hauge and adds that the first inventory correction is behind us, but demand in many categories may be weaker in the future.

The stock market has become cheaper

Nevertheless, Oslo Børs appears more attractive compared to other stock exchanges according to Hauge.

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– The global stock market is relatively expensive, which is quite a contrast to the Oslo Stock Exchange, which has become cheaper and cheaper in recent years.

He believes that earnings are at a completely different level than before the pandemic. He believes this is partly due to the high energy prices, and a number of companies profiting from it – not just the traditional oil and gas companies.

– I think the cliché “Stronger for longer” applies to Oslo Børs. I believe that the earnings you see now is a change of pace that will persist, and persist through this decade, says Hauge.

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He adds that a number of other sectors such as materials, shipping and finance are also doing well – making Oslo Børs more attractive than other exchanges.

– The underlying reason for the change of pace is that some of the sectors that weigh heavily are cyclical, but what is forgotten is the supply side. I think that the market balance in some industry segments will be underestimated going forward, adds Hauge.

He has faith in the farming company Måsøval, the Subsea 7 share and the electronics manufacturer Kitron, where underlying growth drivers counteract any weakened consumer demand.

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Published: 03.09.23 — 01:05


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2023-09-12 07:18:45
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