Election night of emotions and continuous twists of the script. The PP wins, but without enough room to govern. His union with VOX is not enough to reach an absolute majority. Nor that of the PSOE and Sumar bloc. A scenario that portends a possible parliamentary blockade, and on which he plans the possibility of repeat general election in December.
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The PSOE and PP have maintained a heart-stopping duel for victory. They have started behind and behind the Socialists, but halfway through the game they have turned the result upside down and, little by little, they have distanced themselves to achieve 136 seats. In addition, the PP would also win in wisheswith 8,022,090, 33% of the ballots.
Although only a point above the PSOE, which remains with 122 seats. Already a long way from both, VOX is third and retains 33 seats. Sumar, in fourth place, is on his heels with 31.
New general elections?
This scenario would greatly complicate the pacts to reach absolute majorities of government. A priori, and according to these data, PP and VOX would reach 169 seats. And 153 between PSOE and SUMAR. 176 are needed for an absolute majority.
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With the support of UPN and Coalición Canaria, both with 1 seat each, PP and VOX would get 171 deputies.
They also crave Complicated the possibilities of Pedro Sánchez to repeat mandate. The debacle of the Catalan independence movement, with only 14 deputies in total, reduces support.
everything would be in the hands of Puigdemont’s JxCAT. The party has repeatedly announced its intention to abstain. Although his candidate, Miriam Nogueras, has warned tonight that “we will not make Pedro Sánchez president in exchange for nothing. We will not move an inch, because we have memories.”
With that doubt on the table, let’s do the math: the 7 from ERC, the 6 from EH Bildu and 1 from BNG would reach 167. Not even the 5 from the PNV would give them an absolute majority, since Sánchez would keep 172. If Junts finally joined, it would have 179. But, in either case, governing like this would require many concessions and spin fine with each other. Something that is not new to him either.
Instead, the jeltzales yes they could be keys if they decided to support the Feijóo block, since it would allow them to reach, precisely, 176 seats. The president of the PP has claimed his right to form a government and will ask that they allow his investiture.
With this panorama, it seems like a very divided hemicycle. A scenario of authentic blockade to approve budgets and laws. And that brings, once again, the ghost of a new general election in December. As it already happened in 2019.
The PSOE does win in Álava and a surprise in Catalonia
In Álava, the PSOE has easily won the elections. And, in general, the party that achieved victory in the province also won the general elections. Although this time the tables have turned.
But the big surprise has been in Catalonia. There ERC and JxCAT drop to 7 deputies each. The CUP disappears from Congress. That is to say: the pro-independence forces get only 14 seatsvery far from the 23 seats they had in 2019. Then Esquerra got 13 seats, 8 JxCAT and CUP 2.
The defeat of the independence movement has another reading: in Catalonia the PSE clearly wins, and get 19 deputies. Added to the 7 of Sumar, they obtain a total of 26 of the 48 deputies. In 2019 they both got 19 together.
An atypical general election
If elections are repeated, they would be the third elections this year. And it would be necessary to take into account the fed up of the population. Although on this day, in the end, participation has exceeded that of November 2019 by more than 4 points. It has stood at 70.39%.
These have been some most atypical general elections. First, they take place barely two months after the regional and municipal ones. On an unusual date, since they had never been held in July. With the largest postal vote in history, almost 2.5 million. And with a count of the tightest that is remembered.
The country was risking its future for the next 4 years on a Sunday marked by heat and summer holidays. and said future is not clear. The socialist defeat of the past 28M and the consequent electoral advance kindled spirits. Two months ago, it seemed that Sánchez would have everything against him to win.
In fact, he has not succeeded. But it has improved by 2 the seats obtained in 2019. A result that none of the latest polls predicted. Not at all. However, Pedro Sánchez has thrown epic once again. As he already did in the socialist primaries of 2017. And in 2018 after the motion of no confidence in Mariano Rajoy. Also in the repetition of elections in 2019.
They are omnipresence in the media and his warning about the PP-VOX pact have given him results. Although not enough to achieve an absolute majority. But what is necessary to resist and continue in the fight for his goal: 4 more years at Moncloa.
The other side of the coin is Alberto Núñez Feijóo, who initially started as a clear favourite. And he has won. No less than 47 more seats. But insufficient, what bitter his victory.
The latest polls by Sigma Dos and GAD3 predicted between 145 and 150. Only Sociometrica, for El Español, spoke of between 134 and 140 seats. And he has succeeded. He Feijóo effect has not permeated everything expected. The agreements with VOX in various communities to govern them have also taken their toll. And Abascal’s party has deflated, leaving 19 seats along the way.
For his part, Yolanda Díaz has kept the type with Add. The coalition, which was running for the first time in the elections, has won 31 seats. And it is not far from the 35 that Unidas Podemos obtained in 2019.
Along with these 4, 7 other parties have gained representation in the Spanish hemicycle. Five less than in 2019. A sign that bipartisanship is back with strength.
Play with the pactometer and do the calculations as the count progresses.
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