Original title: In August, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month——
my country’s economic prosperity remains stable on the whole
On August 31, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). In August, the manufacturing purchasing managers index was 49.7%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 51%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and was still in the expansion range; the comprehensive PMI output index was 51.3 %, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the overall level of my country’s economic prosperity remained stable.
Manufacturing PMI rebounded for 3 consecutive months
In August, among the 21 industries surveyed, the PMIs of 12 industries rose month-on-month, and the manufacturing industry’s prosperity level further improved. “The PMI index continued to increase slightly in August, and most of the sub-indices have increased, indicating that the momentum of economic recovery continues to accumulate.” Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said.
Production activities in the manufacturing industry accelerated, and market demand improved. Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, said that from the perspective of high-frequency indicators, the operating rates of automobile tire steel tires, blast furnaces, and chemical industries such as methanol, PTA, and PX all rebounded from the previous month. Combined with the previously announced profit data of industrial enterprises, affected by factors such as the decline in production costs and the gradual recovery of demand, the decline in corporate profits continues to narrow, especially the upstream raw material manufacturing and midstream equipment manufacturing industries performed well, which will help release production capacity .
Wen Tao, an expert at the China Logistics Information Center, said that due to the steady progress of new and old infrastructure in various places, the post-disaster reconstruction in many places stimulated the demand for related equipment, and the auto industry is about to enter the traditional peak sales season, the market demand for equipment manufacturing rose rapidly in August. After the hot and rainy weather, consumption activities returned to normal operation, and various demand expansion policies were well implemented. The demand in the domestic consumer market grew rapidly.
Non-manufacturing continues to expand
In August, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 51%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, maintaining the expansion trend. Data show that the construction industry has warmed up, service consumption remains active, and social financing activities have picked up.
The service industry continued to recover. The business activity index of the service industry was 50.5 percent, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous month, and still higher than the threshold. From the perspective of industry, summer consumption has a more obvious role in stimulating the growth of the service industry. The business activity index of railway, aviation, accommodation, catering, ecological protection and public facility management, culture, sports and entertainment industries has been above 55% for two consecutive months. During the period, the total volume of business continued to grow rapidly. “After September, service consumption can continue to operate steadily. Holiday consumption is expected to relay summer consumption and continue to provide incremental demand.” Wu Wei, an expert at the China Logistics Information Center, said.
Social financing activities rebounded, and the financial industry business activity index and new order index both increased from the previous month. Wu Wei believes that with the gradual implementation of various policies to support the real economy, the financing demand of the real economy is expected to further increase. At the same time, the effect of policy combination around the capital market will be gradually released, which will help boost market confidence and activate the capital market.
Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of Everbright Bank, believes that as domestic economic activities return to normal, the real estate market gradually stabilizes and recovers, financial market sentiment continues to pick up, and the service industry is expected to continue to maintain a positive expansion trend, with huge room for development.
In August, the construction industry business activity index was 53.8%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points from the previous month. Cai Jin, vice president of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, said that with the end of the rainy season, activities in the infrastructure and home improvement industries have increased. The business activity index and new order index of the civil engineering construction and architectural decoration industries have both increased compared with the previous month. With the accelerated issuance of special bonds, the stimulating effect of investment will continue to appear.
The recovery momentum will be further consolidated
In August, the comprehensive PMI output index was 51.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to remain in the expansion range. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index, which make up the composite PMI output index, were 51.9% and 51% respectively. Wen Bin believes that the continued recovery of the economic climate is related to the high willingness of residents to consume, the prominent role of infrastructure construction, and the improvement of business confidence.
From the perspective of market expectations, in terms of manufacturing, the production and business activity expectation index was 55.6%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and it has been in the relatively high prosperity range for two consecutive months. “This shows that with the recent intensive introduction of a series of macro-control policies and measures, the development confidence of enterprises has been further enhanced.” Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said.
In terms of non-manufacturing industries, the service industry business activity expectation index was 57.8%, which continued to remain in a relatively high boom range, and most service industry companies were relatively optimistic about the future development of the industry. “Fundamental recovery and policy reinforcement are gradually offsetting the short-term factors that disturb China’s economic recovery, and the unexpected data is expected to bring a more positive reaction to the market.” Pang Ming, Chief Economist and Director of Research Department of Jones Lang LaSalle Greater China express.
But the data also showed a lack of demand. The proportion of manufacturing enterprises that reflect insufficient market demand is still over 59%, and the constraints of shrinking demand on the production activities of enterprises are still prominent. Zhang Liqun said that it is necessary to further improve the actual effect of the policy of expanding domestic demand, focus on enhancing the driving effect of government investment on investment in the whole society, reverse the state of insufficient demand as soon as possible, and fully consolidate the momentum of economic recovery.
[error correction]
[Responsible editor: Zhang Qiaosu]
2023-08-31 23:37:08
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