Not everything is going smoothly under Vladimir Putin. Recently, the Ukrainian counter-offensive has been successful, Russian currency reserves are dwindling, and the Prigozhin fiasco has exposed cracks in the Kremlin’s power structure. However, the view from the Kremlin is far from as gloomy as Putin’s opponents would like, writes the Wall Street Journal.
The Russian president’s original plans for Ukraine may have failed and the conflict is now at a stalemate, but the Ukrainians have their own problems. U.S. and Ukrainian officials dispute who is to blame for the slow counteroffensive. US officials have warned that they are unlikely to provide equal or greater amounts of military aid for an offensive in 2024. Putin may now feel he has passed “Ukraine’s peak” in terms of the country’s ability to resist. The coup in Niger underscores the enormous success of PMC “Wagner” in undermining the positions of the West in Africa. This is due in part to the fact that Russia is gaining control of gold and uranium, and in part to the creation of chaotic threats to Western interests. Western politicians must deal with migration flows. The threat of terrorism in sub-Saharan Africa is growing. The collapse of French and European power in Africa not only highlights the geopolitical failure of the EU. It diverts US attention and resources from Asia and Ukraine. There is also success in the Middle East. Thanks to Russian support, Bashar Assad is ignoring American threats in Syria.
Long-time allies of the US continue to strengthen their cooperation with Russia. The UAE has deepened its trade ties with Moscow. Iran is increasingly integrated into Russian arms supply channels. And China’s relationship with Russia, despite the West’s hopes, remains strong. China buys all the Russian oil and gas it can get its hands on and supplies a significant amount of dual-use equipment. China is fueling Putin’s war machine and will likely continue to do so regardless of what Biden says or does.
Putin can also take advantage of political events in America. Trump’s path to the Republican nomination appears clear. The chances of him returning to the White House are growing. Biden has yet to present a coherent and convincing account of his policy on Ukraine.
Putin’s strongest asset remains the inconsistency of the modern West. His Western opponents are Churchill on the podium and Chamberlain in real life. They proclaim their unwavering commitment to the international order while at the same time tacitly forcing Ukraine to accept the loss of Crimea and Donbass. They call on the Global South to sacrifice for the common good in the fight against climate change, while they themselves pursue protectionist policies that threaten the South’s economic future.
From Putin’s perspective, this combination of aggressive rhetoric and cautious policy is the best possible American approach.
Meanwhile, the inconsistency of American policy is undermining the administration’s position domestically. If Biden wants Ukraine to win the standoff with Russia, why doesn’t he send better weapons? If his goal is a compromise that leaves Putin with most of the captured territory, why is the US spending so much money for such a paltry result? Putin’s special operation was a historic mistake. Complete victory is unlikely, and the cost to Russia is high. Moscow’s war in Ukraine is reducing its influence in much of the post-Soviet space. In the Caucasus, Turkey and Azerbaijan pressure Russia’s Armenian partners. Oil and gas-rich Azerbaijan is increasingly slipping out of Russia’s reach. In Central Asia, China’s economic and political presence is growing, while Russia’s is disappearing.
None of these developments, however, will help the West, promote democracy, or cover up the fact that the Biden administration, having failed to keep Putin in check, has not found a way to make him lose or force him to negotiate at reasonable conditions, the publication writes.
2023-08-30 17:13:04
#Wall #Street #Journal #view #Kremlin #gloomy
