European elections, Tunisia and the Stability Pact are just some of the “hot” dossiers on the table at Palazzo Chigi. Let’s start with the migrants. During Monday’s Council of Ministers, Undersecretary Alfredo Mantovano took stock of the situation, declaring that “the increase in landings is undeniable, we are at +103% compared to 2022”. A situation caused “by the opening of many crises: the whole area of the Sahel causes departures beyond the traditionally interested countries”. According to the undersecretary, if on the one hand the increase in flows is undeniable, on the other there is a decrease compared to the peak in May. «The dynamics see a peak in May and then a decline, as in Tunisia and Libya – recalled Mantovano – The work by the Italian government is starting to obtain the first results and we plan to increase them with an even closer dialogue with the countries of departure, such as Tunisia whose efforts we recognize: for 50 people who leave, at least as many are retained”. A job that Italy cannot do alone, as Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has reiterated several times. “We need a European strategy throughout the African continent, the risk is that there are more and more migrants from the south to the north of the world,” said the deputy prime minister. And the European Commission intervened precisely on Tunisia, with a note, explaining how “the memorandum of understanding with Tunisia should not be considered as a method for a quick solution to the problem of migration and we expect that the results will be achieved in the medium term”.
Then there is the theme: Stability Pact. If a new text is not approved, after three years of suspension, the old Pact will come back into force which “imposes” on the Member States a public deficit not exceeding 3% of GDP (deficit/GDP ratio < 3%) and a public debt below 60% of GDP. In the Council of Ministers, Giancarlo Giorgetti, head of the Economy Department, announced: «The European Commission has already taken steps to publish a sort of guidance in the event that a new Pact cannot be approved by the end of the year, which is perhaps the 'most probable hypothesis'. The government's commitment will be to respect "the objectives with a principle of responsibility, taking into account the relevant circumstances and factors that have occurred and are occurring in 2023 and which we will promptly report on the occasion of the Nadef that we will present to Parliament in September". The Minister for European Affairs, Raffaele Fitto, shares the same opinion: "Italy will work so that there is a path which, looking at the order of public finances, however also keeps a close eye on growth". For Defense Minister Guido Crosetto it is necessary "to avoid the sword of Damocles" while Deputy Prime Minister Antonio Tajani warned that "excessive rigidity could jeopardize Italy's growth". And given the difficulty of being able to find an agreement by the end of the year, the secretary of Forza Italia has proposed a six-month extension of the suspension of the old Stability Pact pending TrovaPercento. The figure that records the increase in arrivals of migrants in Italy compared at the same period of 2022 re an agreement on the new.
Last chapter: the European elections which will be held from 6 to 9 June 2024. An appointment that Nicola Procaccini, co-president of the Ecr group, the group of European Conservatives and Reformists, defined as a “watershed for European, Italian and world”. But the point here is the alliances, on which the three majority parties have not found agreement. Salvini pushes for an agreement with Rassemblement national, Marine Le Pen’s party, and Alternative fur Deutschland, the German far-right party. An axis that does not convince Minister Tajani: “Never with parties like that of Le Pen or Afd”. It will not be easy to find a common ally given that the Brothers of Italy is part of the European Conservatives and Reformists Party, the League of the Identity and Democracy group while Forza Italia is a member of the European People’s Party. In practice, at this moment, Forza Italia is part of the “Ursula majority” while Lega and FdI are in opposition. If progressives are excluded from the alliance between the EPP and PCR in the alliances of the future European Parliament, the balance will rest on those political forces that do not belong to any group such as the Movimento 5 Stelle, Renew Europe (which in Italy is represented by Action and Italy away) but also the party of Orban Fidesz and Reconquete! journalist Eric Zemour’s French nationalist party. A domino that will have to be resolved quickly given the close deadline.
