ANPPieter Omtzigt in conversation with the media after his announcement to participate in the elections for the House of Representatives with his own party, New Social Contract.
NOS Nieuws•vandaag, 06:00
Marleen de Rooy
Political reporter
Barbara Terlingen
editor Politics
Marleen de Rooy
Political reporter
Barbara Terlingen
editor Politics
With more than twelve weeks to go until the parliamentary elections, a poll by I&O Research points to a political landslide. If people are now asked who they would vote for, newcomer Pieter Omtzigt could, according to the research bureau, with his new party New Social Contract, reach 31 seats and thus become the largest in one fell swoop.
The current (outgoing) government parties are surrendering the poll all in, with the CDA polled at a historically low number of seats of 3 – the party now has 15 seats in parliament. D66 would now drop to 7 of the 24 seats in the House of Representatives. The VVD, the largest in the Chamber for years, is polled at 22 seats, compared to the current 34 seats. The loss is smallest for the ChristenUnie: from 5 to 4.
The BBB, still the big winner in the recent parliamentary elections, would have 13 seats, according to research by I&O research, considerably less than the 21 seats in the previous poll on 20 July. The new GroenLinks-PvdA partnership, led by Frans Timmermans, would amount to 28 seats. That is 11 more than the parties now have together in the House.
I&O research
If you ask people today, Omtzigt’s new party could become the largest in one fell swoop. But the election is only three months away. Parties are still coming up with their election programs and debates in which the party leaders cross swords have not yet taken place. In short: voters can still change their mind.
It is clear that Omtzigt’s plea for a new administrative culture and a reliable government currently appeals to many voters. According to I&O Research, this concerns “a colorful collection” of voters that Omtzigt sees as “the embodiment of a political culture that listens to the population”.
Relatively the largest part of this colorful collection comes from Omtzigt’s old party, the CDA. 35 percent of the people who voted for the CDA in the previous elections now opt for Omtzigt. But according to the poll, there are also many switchers among the JA21 voters (28 percent) and the PVV voters (24 percent).
Plan
The election program of Omtzigt’s party can still influence voting behaviour. The research bureau emphasizes that New Social Contract can attract even more, or even fewer, voters as soon as the party position becomes clear on a number of polarized topics such as climate, migration and agriculture.
GroenLinks-PvdA also loses voters to Omtzigt in the poll. But the new left-wing combination of Timmermans itself attracts voters from D66, Volt and SP and therefore ends up with 28 seats in the I&O poll, or 3 less than Omtzigt. Timmermans has clearly stated that he is going for power and therefore for the Torentje.
VVD party leader Dilan Yesilgöz is also eyeing the Torentje, but the VVD now also seems to be handing in a large number of voters. Perhaps a factor is that Yesilgöz, who “wants to make the Netherlands even stronger and more resilient” and “wants to become the biggest”, is not yet known to some people.
Little pressure
The fact that Omtzigt does not want to become prime minister does not seem to bother voters for the time being, concludes I&O Research. He says he does not want to become too big with the New Social Contract, but it is unclear how he wants to limit that growth. If he does not participate in all constituencies, or comes up with a limited number of candidates, that could disappoint voters.
In July, when the cabinet had just fallen on migration, many voters told I&O research that they thought migration and asylum were important. In the new survey, the theme scores considerably lower, and the theme reliable government scores high. This shows that there can be significant fluctuations in what voters consider important.
And that polls so far before the elections cannot predict everything, became clear in 2012, when SP leader Emile Roemer scored high in the polls for a long time. The Torentje seemed almost in sight, but it never got that far. In decisive debates Roemer went down and Diederik Samsom of the PvdA steamed up. Samsom and VVD leader Rutte ended up in a duel after an RTL prime minister’s debate.
One thing is certain: the political landscape in the Netherlands will be shaken up considerably with the arrival of Pieter Omtzigt. And that puts considerable pressure on a party that does not actually want to become the largest.
2023-08-26 04:00:41
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