A consumer survey (confirmed figures) released by the University of Michigan in August showed inflation expectations one year ahead reaching the highest level in three months. The rise in gasoline prices was a factor pushing up the market, which weighed on consumer confidence.
Key point Inflation expectations 1 year ahead rise to 3.5%, above market expectations of 3.3% Last month was 3.4% Inflation expectations 5-10 years ahead are 3.0%, unchanged from the past two months
As a result, the consumer confidence index fell to 69.5 in August from 71.6 in July, which was the highest level in about two years. That was below the median forecast of 71.2 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
“While there is a perception that inflation has come down significantly from its peak last summer, high prices are still affecting consumer perceptions,” said Joan Shu, director of consumer research at the University of Michigan, in a statement. Ta.
The survey found an increase in the percentage of consumers who were “voluntarily” talking about higher fuel prices in late August. But I don’t expect gas prices to rise significantly over the next year.
In addition, the percentage of people who say inflation will outpace income growth over the next year is the lowest since October 2021. Combined with the still strong view of the job market, it suggests that optimism about future business sentiment may grow stronger.
Consumer spending remains strong, supported by slowing inflation and a robust labor market. That’s why some economists are pushing back or canceling recession forecasts.
An index of durable goods buying conditions and an index of household outlook improved to levels for the first time in about two years.
The current situation index fell to 75.7 from 76.6 in the previous month. Expectations index fell from 68.3 to 65.5.
See table for detailed statistics.
Original title: US Aug. Final Michigan Sentiment Fell to 69.5; Est. 71.2,US Consumer Year-Ahead Inflation Expectations Rise on Gasoline(excerpt)
(updates with additional details)
2023-08-25 14:13:42
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