Two months after his armed uprising against the Russian army leadership, Yevgeny Prigozhin is dead. Is this the ‘unavoidable punishment’ promised to him by President Vladimir Putin in June?
Inside and outside Russia, there has been little surprise at the death of the 62-year-old boss of the Wagner mercenary army. Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of the Russian state broadcaster RT, said on Wednesday evening that he assumes “the most obvious explanation” for the crash of Prigozhin’s private plane, which killed Prigozhin and the nine other passengers, according to the Russian aviation authority. US President Joe Biden also said he was “not surprised” by the death of 62-year-old Prigozhin.
Both suggest a scenario that is plausible in Vladimir Putin’s Russia: Prigozhin’s plane was shot down by order of the Russian head of state, who wanted to liquidate a rebellious ally.
Putin had already threatened revenge. When Prigozhin’s Wagner fighters took the metropolis of Rostov on June 24 and shot down several Russian army helicopter gunships on their way to Moscow, Putin spoke of “high treason” and “a stab in the back” in a televised speech to the Russian population . Without naming Prigozhin, the president promised “cruel measures” and “unavoidable punishment” for “the traitors of the fatherland.”
But Putin caused confusion by then letting Prigozhin get away with impunity. Prigozhin was not arrested for leading an armed march towards Moscow. Five days later, Prigozhin was even sitting in the Kremlin with other Wagner commanders to discuss new foreign combat missions with Putin.
Afraid of Prigozhin?
Prigozhin’s freedom raised questions about Putin’s power. Did Putin not dare to deal with Prigozhin? Could he no longer do without Wagner, who determines Russia’s power in Africa and in May led to the last Russian victory in the war against Ukraine with the capture of the city of Bachmut?
Whatever the cause of the crash, Putin will hope those questions go away. Potential mutineers must be convinced that Putin is omnipotent and always retaliates. Remain loyal to the president and you will be safe, is the message that the Russian elite will read in the death of Prigozhin and his associates. Performance is less important.
That message was underlined on Wednesday by another report in the Russian state media: Sergei Soerovikin, a general who led the Russian invasion force for several months last year, has been dismissed by Putin as commander of the air and space forces. His dismissal would not be related to his performance (military analysts praise his construction of defense lines that the Ukrainian army is now encountering), but to his good relationship with Prigozhin.
Popularity Wagner boss
His death is not without danger for the Kremlin. Prigozhin made himself popular among the military by speaking out loud about the disastrous invasion of Ukraine by the Russian military leadership. He sent many soldiers into Ukraine without proper preparation and equipment, with huge losses as a result.
It will become clear in the near future how the thousands of (former) Wagner fighters will react to the death of their leader and other Wagner leaders who would have been on the plane, such as Wagner founder Dmitri Oetkin. Telegram channels affiliated with Wagner are speculating about a new advance on Moscow. Should it come to that, the leaders now know not to turn around halfway.
