Home » Sport » Statistical Analysis: Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz – A Tennis Rivalry

Statistical Analysis: Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz – A Tennis Rivalry

The last two duels between Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz have been two of anthology. At Wimbledon, the young prodigy had the upper hand. In Cincinnati, the old roadster had the last word. A few days before the United States Open, we can already anticipate a third chapter in this new rivalry.

Posted at 12:44 a.m. Updated at 5:00 a.m.

In the meantime, the debate about who is the best is raging on the Web and in the media. The Press offers a statistical analysis to try to resolve the debate.

After the same number of tournaments (74)

Since joining the professional ranks, Alcaraz has played in 74 tournaments. Both at ITF, Challenger and ATP level. It was therefore interesting to look at the performance of Djokovic after the same number of tournaments played. The Spaniard has won 12 ATP tournaments, 4 in Challenger and 3 ITF. Among these victories, there are two in Grand Slam tournaments and four in Masters 1000. At the same stage of his career, Djokovic had won nine ATP titles, three in Challenger and three ITF. Among them, a major and three in Masters 1000. Note, however, that Djokovic was playing at a time when Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal were at the top of their game. Still, the current world number one is having a better start to his career on this side.

Djokovic : 9 titres ATP, 3 Challenger, 3 ITF
Alcaraz : 12 titres ATP, 4 Challenger, 3 ITF

What do you want me to say about Novak? It’s amazing, playing against him. You inspired me a lot. I started playing tennis watching you. I was born and you had already won many tournaments!

Carlos Alcaraz, Wimbledon, 2023

At the same age

As of August 21, 2023, Alcaraz is 20 years, 3 months and 16 days old. Obviously, his file remains the same as in the previous paragraph. However, at the same age, Djokovic was somewhat behind his young – but nevertheless exceptional – rival. Djoko therefore had six fewer ATP titles – including two Grand Slams and two Masters 1000 – than Alcaraz at the same age.

You never give up, man. Sweet Jesus !

Novak Djokovic, Cincinnati, 2023

One against the other

PHOTO AARON DOSTER, ARCHIVES ASSOCIATED PRESS

Novak Djokovic

To compare two players and determine which is the most effective, it is inevitably necessary to dwell on the matches played against each other. Alcaraz and Djokovic met for the first time in Madrid, in 2022, on clay. Alcaraz had won in three sets. A few months ago, Djokovic got the better of a sore Alcaraz in the semi-finals of Roland-Garros. In the Wimbledon final a month ago, Alcaraz defeated the Serb in an epic duel in the final. Then, on Sunday, Djokovic took top honors in Cincinnati. They have therefore shared their four clashes so far.

2022 at Madrid Masters – semi-final – Carlos Alcaraz win 6-7 (5), 7-5, 7-6 (5) 2023 at Roland-Garros – semi-final – Novak Djokovic win 6-3, 5 -7, 6-1, 6-1 2023 Wimbledon – final – Carlos Alcaraz win 1-6, 7-6(6), 6-1, 3-6, 6-4 2023 Cincinnati Masters – final – Novak Djokovic win 5-7, 7-6 (7), 7-6 (4)

Against the top 10

To be considered the best, you have to beat the best. What could be better, then, than looking at their performance against players from the top 10 ? Alcaraz has played 31 career games against players who are members of the top 10. He won 20 of them, good for a 64.5% kill rate. On the other hand, Djokovic won 69.3% of his matches against the same group of players, triumphing 251 times out of 362. However, at the same stadium as Alcaraz, he had only 9 wins in 24 duels, for a ratio of 37 .5%.

Djokovic : 69.3 % Alcaraz : 64.5 %

On different surfaces

If Novak Djokovic is considered by many to be the best player in history, it is mainly thanks to his versatility. Of his 23 major titles, he has won 13 on hard courts, 7 on grass and 3 on clay. On average, in tournaments of all categories, he won 84.8% of his matches on hard courts, 80.6% on clay and 85.8% on grass. Alcaraz won an average of 75% of his hard-court matches, 82.1% on clay and 88.9% on grass.

I thought I would be in trouble against you on clay and maybe on hard, but not on grass!

Novak Djokovic, Wimbledon, 2023

Finally

PHOTO ALBERT CESARE, ARCHIVES USA TODAY SPORTS

Carlos Alcaraz

It’s one thing to reach the final of a tournament, you still have to win it to hope to be among the greatest. Djokovic and Alcaraz are masters in the art of raising their game a notch when the moment demands it. Djokovic has won 95 of the 135 finals he has played, an efficiency rate of 70.3%. This ratio decreases somewhat, to 65.7%, in major tournament finals, with a record of 23-12. Like Alcaraz at the same age, he had played in two Grand Slam finals, winning one of them. At the same stage of his career as the Spaniard, he had won 9 of his 12 finals. Alcaraz has triumphed 12 times in 16 finals, for an equivalent ratio of 75%. However, he won his two finals in Grand Slam tournaments.

There are no words to describe everything you do on and off the pitch. You are an incredible man and a champion.

Novak Djokovic, Cincinnati, 2023

In the standings

The rise of Carlos Alcaraz is expeditious, even historic, and that is what makes it remarkable. The young Spaniard entered the top 10 at the age of 18 years, 11 months and 21 days. He ascended to the world throne a few weeks later, at 19 years, 4 months and 8 days. For his part, Djokovic arrived in the top 10 at the age of 19 years, 9 months and 25 days. After years of hard work behind Federer and Nadal, he finally became world number one at 24 years, 1 month and 12 days.

I learn a lot from a champion like you.

Carlos Alcaraz, Cincinnati, 2023

2023-08-22 12:10:21
#Novak #Djokovic #Carlos #Alcaraz

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.