There is a lot of enthusiasm for Pieter Omtzigt’s long-awaited party, but he prefers not to get too many seats right away. Voters understand this, but are massively disappointed when he does not stand for election everywhere.
This has emerged from research by EenVandaag among thousands of voters who want to vote for Pieter Omtzigt.
Not getting the most seats
After a long wait, Omtzigt announced on Sunday evening that it wanted to participate in the upcoming parliamentary elections under the name New Social Contract.
His goal is not necessarily to get the most seats or become prime minister himself, while the polls show that he has that potential. Earlier figures from EenVandaag and Ipsos show that 3 out of 10 voters listen to his party.
‘Reluctance radiates fear’
Omtzigt is therefore thinking about how he could limit his number of seats. One possibility is to participate in a limited number of electoral districts. In such a case, Omtzigt’s party cannot be ticked everywhere in the voting booth, much to the disappointment of voters who want to vote for him. 87 percent of those voters would regret not being able to tick their party in November.
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Voters’ reaction to possible restrictions on the number of seats in Omtzigt
“Now that he has opted for his own party, he must also go for it. This restraint radiates fear,” responds an Omtzigt voter. For many Omtzigt voters, this may be a reason to definitively drop out of politics: “Ridiculous, I don’t think it is democratic if it is determined in advance who I can vote for. Then I’m completely done with politics.”
Person more important than content
That voters have pinned their hopes on the person of Pieter Omtzigt also becomes clear when asked about the reasons for voting for a party. As the only constituency, they consider the leader of the party more important than the content. 70 percent of them intend to vote for that party because of their personality. For other parties, this is only half of that (36 percent).
And on average, 76 percent vote for a party because of its content, but that is much lower among Omtzigt voters: 52 percent. Furthermore, a quarter of Omtzigt voters (27 percent), more often than other voters, vote for their party in protest against the (outgoing) cabinet.
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Voting motives for Omtzigt voters
Concept for turning down premiership
There is understanding for his aim not to become the largest party. Almost all of his voters (92 percent) agree. “This is very sensible. In the past things have gone wrong too often with newcomers, look at the LPF or Forum for Democracy,” someone writes.
“And I also find it very sympathetic. This shows that he is not out for power, but wants to steer content where necessary.”
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Content goals
3 out of 10 voters (31 percent) think that he should actually be the largest in order to achieve the substantive goals he has, such as a new management culture and more social security.
Furthermore, Omtzigt does not like to become prime minister himself. He would rather be party leader in the House of Representatives, he said today. That is not a breaking point for his voters either. A third (33 percent) thinks it’s important that they want to become one themselves, but most (57 percent) don’t think it’s that important or not at all important.
Care, trust, identity
Omtzigt and his party want to focus primarily on a new administrative culture, a theme that his voters attach great value to. After health care (62 percent), the restoration of public confidence in politics (47 percent) is the most important political theme for Omtzigt voters. That is a much higher figure than among voters of other parties.
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Which themes are important to Omtzigt voters
Voters also hope that New Social Contract will express itself about Dutch identity, norms and values. 40 percent of voters who want to vote for Omtzigt consider this an urgent political theme.
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About this research
The results described in this analysis come from two surveys among potential voters by Pieter Omtzigt from the Opinion Panel. The first investigation was held from 9 to 13 August 2023, before it became known that Pieter Omtzigt wants to set up his own party.
The second investigation was held on Monday, August 21, after Omtzigt made his announcement. The studies involved 3,522 and 4,642 voters, respectively, who want to vote for a party of Omtzigt in the parliamentary elections.
After weighting, the studies are representative of 6 variables, namely: age, gender, education, marital status, distribution across the country and political preference measured by the 2021 parliamentary elections. The Opinion Panel consists of 80,000 members.
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2023-08-21 15:04:22
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