COMMENTS
Once upon a time. Only two years ago, that autocracy and dictatorship challenged democracy and liberal values as a governance model. That’s hardly enough anymore, writes Morten Strand.
– LISTEN HERE: Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. But none of them have reason to smile. Photo: AP / NTB Show more
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Published Sunday 20 August 2023 – 21:54
The autocrat comrades Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are in trouble. The problems have a similar cause, namely that the two cultivate authoritarian thinking, paired with nationalism and aggression. They both turn to their dictatorships, cultivating control at the expense of freedom and creativity. It has brought Russia into the insane war in Ukraine. And it is bringing China out of its more than 40-year period of adventurous growth.
During Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s visit to North Korea, large portraits of Russian President Vladimir Putin were hung. Video: Reuters. Reporter: Vegard Krüger / Dagbladet TV. view more
Putin’s and Xi’s “boundless friendship” as they formulated it a few years ago can become a kind of Faustian pact, where they both sell their souls to the devil. The two – Putin and Xi – could in this case become each other’s devils. This shared destiny could be fatal for Xi if he does not break it in time. Putin is probably lost anyway.
Just two years ago was the rising Chinese and Russian autocracy an alternative for the poor world. They presented a brilliant image of political stability, and of China’s adventurous economic growth, which stood in contrast to the low economic growth of the liberal Western democracies, and the chaos of Donald Trump’s USA. What was the best? The stability and growth of autocracies? Or the chaos and stagnation of democracies? The answers to these questions have contributed to the fact that in recent years more and more people live in authoritarian societies, while democracy as both idea and practice has lost.
But in February 2022 warrior-president Putin used the entire Russian war machine to force Ukraine into his imaginary Russian empire. His real message to the Ukrainians was; if you don’t want to be Russians, then you must die. But the Ukrainians – as we know – did not want to be Russians, and Putin rooted himself into a crisis that threatens both the state’s stability and economy. The system does not sell well as an alternative management model.
The Chinese President Xi Jinping made himself dictator last year, thus breaking the tradition after Deng Xiaoping, that the leader’s power was limited to ten years. Xi is taking China a long way back to Mao Zedong’s time, characterized by demands for political control, and confrontation, both in China and with China’s neighbours. The result is weak economic growth, and a social model that is more difficult to sell in the world as an alternative to the liberal democracies. Part of the background was Xi’s lockdown of the country due to the coronavirus. It was only in December last year that the country was opened. Dictator Xi did not trust his own vaccines, and again total control was more important than a pragmatic approach to the disease.
Trench diplomacy
To illustrate Xi’s challenge, from the 1980s until the financial crisis in 2008, China had an annual growth of a fabulous ten percent or more. After 2008, growth has been from 6 to 8 per cent. But international experts, such as Ruchir Sharma of Rockefeller International, believe such growth is history. He writes in the Financial Times that China will not reach its moderate goals of 5 percent growth this year and in the years to come, but the peak will have a growth of 2.5 percent.
One reason is housing bubble that has hit China. Another is cautious consumers, who would rather save than spend money. The Chinese economy is showing signs of stagnation, with youth unemployment at more than 21 percent. And even more shocking in this economic growth machine of the last 40 years, 70 percent of these young unemployed had a university education. Xi’s China is thus unable to take care of those who would inherit the future. The future is at stake.
Xi’s answer is that it is “hard work and perseverance” that is the answer to the challenges, it sounds like a Maoist campaign, and not a strategy for new economic growth. In any case, a little over a week ago, China’s problems prompted US President Joe Biden, who is often too outspoken, to say that China is “a ticking time bomb” and a threat to other countries.
Hunger as a weapon is cowardly
The future is at stake. The one-child policy from Mao’s time is definitely a ticking time bomb. Each Chinese woman gives birth to an average of 1.2 children, while what is required to maintain the population is almost double that, 2.1. Population decline will have major consequences for China as both a great power and as a model for the world’s poor countries looking for a role model .
Not even China’s youth are some global role models. According to a 2020 survey, 14.6 percent of men between the ages of 18 and 25 who are in a relationship, and 10.1 percent of women, state that they have not had sex in the past year. China’s young people can’t buy a home, they have a bad job market, and they don’t even want to have sex. Is there anything to sell to the world?
2023-08-20 19:56:00
#Autocrats #trouble
